Fantasy Baseball: Navigating the Murky Waters of Closers in 2024

The capricious nature of bullpens is a perennial headache for fantasy baseball managers. Unlike starting pitchers who (ideally) provide consistent innings and predictable stat lines, relief pitchers, particularly closers, are a volatile breed. A dominant closer can be the cornerstone of a fantasy pitching staff, racking up saves, contributing to ERA and WHIP, and often adding valuable strikeouts. Conversely, a shaky closer situation can leave a team scrambling for saves each week, prone to blown leads and frustrating inconsistencies.

This year, the landscape of MLB bullpens, especially in the National League, presents a particularly challenging puzzle for fantasy managers. While a handful of established closers provide a sense of security, many teams face uncertainty, competition, or unproven options. The scarcity of reliable closers amplifies their value in drafts and auctions, making it crucial to accurately assess risk and potential reward.

The National League Closer Conundrum

The article correctly points out the relative lack of clarity in the National League closer market. Only three names – Edwin Diaz (Mets), Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), and Raisel Iglesias (Braves) – stand out as near-locks for their respective teams’ ninth-inning roles. Diaz’s return from injury is highly anticipated, and if he regains his pre-injury form, he’ll be among the elite closers in fantasy. Helsley proved his dominance when healthy, but durability remains a concern. Iglesias has secured the role in Atlanta and should provide a solid, albeit perhaps not spectacular, stream of saves.

Beyond these three, the picture becomes considerably murkier. The article mentions Ryan Walker (Giants) and his late-season success in 2023. While his performance was impressive, banking on him as the Giants’ definitive closer comes with significant risk. His relatively short track record, coupled with potential competition from other arms in the Giants’ bullpen, makes him more of a speculative pick. He’s a solid value if you can get him late, but don’t overspend expecting a repeat of his numbers.

The influx of veteran relievers like Jordan Romano, Ryan Pressly, and Kirby Yates into the NL adds further complexity. While these pitchers have proven closer experience, their new situations may not guarantee automatic closer roles. They’ll likely factor into high-leverage situations, but whether they consistently get the ninth-inning nod depends on their performance and the preferences of their respective managers. These veterans will compete for saves and high-leverage situations, muddying the waters for fantasy owners seeking certainty.

The overall takeaway from the National League is that fantasy managers need to be cautious and strategic. Identify the clear-cut closers and prioritize them accordingly. For the more ambiguous situations, draft potential candidates later in the draft and be prepared to monitor the situations closely during the season. Waiver wire activity and early-season trades could be crucial in securing valuable save opportunities. Understanding team dynamics and manager tendencies becomes essential in navigating these uncertain bullpens.

American League: A Deeper Pool of Potential

The article highlights the relative depth of the American League closer pool. While Devin Williams’ move to the Yankees would have made him a top fantasy target, it didn’t happen. Emmanuel Clase’s incredible performance, punctuated by a league-leading 47 saves and a minuscule 0.61 ERA, firmly establishes him as the premier closer in fantasy baseball. He’s the gold standard, offering both volume and elite ratios.

The signings of Jeff Hoffman (Blue Jays), Kenley Jansen (Angels), and Carlos Estevez (Royals) add further clarity to the AL closer landscape. These established relievers solidify the ninth-inning roles for their respective teams, providing a reliable source of saves for fantasy managers. While Jansen’s age and recent performance raise some concerns, he remains a high-upside option. Hoffman and Estevez represent solid, if not spectacular, choices for managers looking for consistent save production.

The presence of these established closers in the American League creates a more predictable environment for fantasy managers. While there will always be surprises and fluctuations, the AL offers a higher degree of certainty compared to the NL. The depth of the AL closer pool also means that fantasy managers can potentially wait a bit longer in drafts to address the closer position, knowing that viable options will still be available.

However, even in the American League, there are still some question marks. Keep a close eye on situations where there might be potential competition or injury concerns. Young, talented relievers could emerge and challenge established closers, creating valuable waiver wire opportunities. Staying informed about bullpen usage and manager preferences is crucial for maximizing fantasy value.

Strategic Considerations for Drafting Closers

Given the volatile nature of bullpens, especially in the National League, drafting closers requires careful consideration and a strategic approach. The following tips can help you navigate the closer landscape and build a successful fantasy pitching staff:

• Prioritize Elite Closers: If you have the opportunity to draft a top-tier closer like Emmanuel Clase, seize it. These players provide a significant advantage in saves and contribute positively to ERA and WHIP.

• Assess Risk Tolerance: Are you comfortable taking risks on unproven closers with high upside, or do you prefer the safety of established veterans? Your risk tolerance should influence your draft strategy.

• Monitor Bullpen Situations: Stay informed about bullpen usage, injuries, and manager tendencies. Knowledge is power when it comes to identifying potential closer changes and waiver wire opportunities.

• Don’t Overpay: Closers are valuable, but they’re also prone to volatility. Avoid overspending on closers who are past their prime or facing significant competition.

• Consider Save Projections: Use save projections from reputable sources to identify potential value picks and avoid overvaluing closers with limited opportunities.

• Be Prepared to Adapt: Bullpen situations can change quickly. Be ready to adjust your roster and acquire new closers via trade or the waiver wire as needed.

• Streaming Saves: In deeper leagues or if you miss out on the elite closers, consider a streaming strategy. Identify favorable matchups and target relievers likely to vulture a save opportunity.

The closer position is one of the most challenging but also potentially rewarding aspects of fantasy baseball. By understanding the dynamics of MLB bullpens, assessing risk effectively, and staying informed about changing situations, you can build a successful fantasy pitching staff and gain a competitive edge in your league. Don’t underestimate the importance of saves, and be prepared to be proactive in managing your closer situation throughout the season.