Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates: One Player at Every Position
Predicting breakouts in sports is a notoriously difficult task. Ascertaining which players will elevate their game to superstar status borders on the impossible. Injuries, regression, or simply failing to live up to expectations can derail even the most promising talents. However, every so often, someone accurately foresees a player’s leap to prominence. Identifying these potential breakout stars can lead to significant advantages in fantasy baseball, allowing you to acquire valuable players at a fraction of their true worth.
While no single statistic can definitively pinpoint a future star, careful analysis of underlying data and circumstantial factors can significantly increase your chances of making an informed prediction. This article identifies one player at each position with a considerable opportunity to emerge as a valuable fantasy asset in the upcoming season.
Catcher: Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals
Despite projections of a rebuilding year for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025, catcher Ivan Herrera is poised to take the next step in his development and potentially join the ranks of the elite catchers. Herrera demonstrates exceptional plate discipline for a catcher, ranking in the upper echelon of Major League Baseball in both chase rate and strikeout rate. This indicates a disciplined approach at the plate, avoiding unnecessary swings and minimizing strikeouts.
While his power numbers may not be eye-popping, that shouldn’t be the primary focus when evaluating catchers. Given his availability outside the top 250 picks in many drafts, Herrera offers significant upside. If he can replicate his impressive .301/.372/.428 triple-slash line from the previous season, fantasy managers will reap substantial rewards. This outcome is entirely within the realm of possibility, as his expected batting average of .293 and expected slugging percentage of .453 actually surpassed his actual results. Furthermore, the Cardinals’ decision to move Willson Contreras to first base full-time creates a clear path to playing time for Herrera. While he will need to outperform Pedro Pages, Herrera’s superior performance at the plate and behind it, demonstrated by a 47.5% called strike rate compared to Pages’ 45.8% in 2024, suggests he is well-equipped to secure the starting role.
First Base: Jake Burger, Texas Rangers
During the second half of the 2024 season, only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Anthony Santander, and Eugenio Suarez surpassed Jake Burger’s home run total of 19. Burger’s performance in the second half was exceptional, reflected in his outstanding 148 OPS+. While maintaining that level of success throughout a full season may be unrealistic, it showcases Burger’s potential, particularly as he joins a Texas Rangers team whose ballpark ranks fourth in home run factor for right-handed batters over the past three years.
The prospect of Burger hitting behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia creates a wealth of opportunities for him to drive in runs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Burger hit 35 home runs and drive in over 90 runs, making him a highly valuable asset at first base.
Second Base: Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox
With increased infield competition in Boston, following the signing of Alex Bregman, Kristian Campbell could offer more offensive production than Trevor Story or Ceddanne Rafaela. He is expected to compete for the starting second baseman spot after hitting 20 home runs in just 430 minor league at-bats the previous year.
Campbell has consistently excelled at every level of the minor leagues, quickly ascending through the Red Sox prospect rankings. He has maintained an OPS above .800 at every level, highlighting his offensive prowess. Potentially hitting behind Tyler O’Neill, Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, and Rafael Devers, Campbell is primed to make an impact in the Red Sox lineup.
Third Base: Jose Tena, Washington Nationals
Jose Tena boasts impressive batted ball metrics, hitting the ball with exceptional force. His 91.2 mph exit velocity and 49.2% hard-hit rate place him among the elite in these categories. However, despite these impressive metrics, Tena experienced some bad luck at the plate, with only eight of his 43 hits going for extra bases. Furthermore, Tena’s expected weighted on-base average was 19 points higher than his actual wOBA, indicating that he is likely to improve his offensive output next season.
His minor league production further supports this notion. While Tena’s walk rate with Washington in 2024 was only 4.2%, he consistently maintained walk rates between 7% and 9% in the minors. This suggests that his on-base percentage could also improve significantly this year.
Shortstop: Luisangel Acuña, New York Mets
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has clearly stated that Acuña will play a significant role in 2025. While Acuña may not provide substantial power numbers, he is a solid contact hitter with exceptional speed. If he earns a spot at the top of the Mets lineup, given Brandon Nimmo’s struggles the previous year, he’ll have numerous opportunities to score runs and steal bases, making him a valuable asset in both head-to-head and points formats. Additionally, with Lindor firmly entrenched at shortstop, Acuña could also provide eligibility at multiple positions, enhancing his versatility.
Outfield: Dylan Crews, Washington Nationals
While selecting a top prospect as a breakout candidate may seem obvious, Dylan Crews presents an especially compelling case. He is projected to slot into the two-hole in the Nationals’ lineup, providing him with ample opportunity to succeed, even if he experiences initial struggles as he adjusts to the major leagues.
Despite Crews’ underwhelming performance in his brief stint in the majors the previous year, several metrics suggest that better days are ahead. For instance, Crews’ ground ball rate in the majors was 57.1%, significantly higher than his minor league rate of 42.1%. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity also declined, but these metrics are expected to normalize over time. At a minimum, Crews offers a solid floor for his rookie season, potentially reaching 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. However, if that represents his floor, his ceiling could be considerably higher.
Outfield: Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers
While the Detroit Tigers’ pitching staff is often credited for the team’s success in the second half of 2024, Parker Meadows may have been an even more significant factor. Meadows recorded a stellar .296/.340/.500 triple-slash line in the second half, a performance that appears sustainable.
After being sent back down to the minors, Meadows made an adjustment to his swing, opting for increased bat speed. This adjustment proved highly effective, raising his batting average by over 160 points between the first and second halves. If Meadows can maintain a reasonable facsimile of the success he enjoyed down the stretch last year, he’ll represent an excellent value pick outside the top 200.
Outfield: Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
With a consensus ADP outside the top 250, Matt Wallner offers tremendous potential. A glance at his Baseball Savant page reveals a sea of red, indicative of his remarkable batted ball skills.
Wallner’s primary weakness is his contact rate. His 38.4% whiff rate is concerning, but it does not reflect a lack of plate discipline. Wallner’s chase rate of 26% is above league average, suggesting he has a good eye but struggles to make contact when the ball is in the strike zone. Despite this significant flaw in his swing, Wallner still posted a 149 OPS+, marking him as an elite hitter. His ADP is significantly undervalued at this point.
Starting Pitcher: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Hunter Brown has the potential to emulate Tarik Skubal’s breakout into one of baseball’s premier pitchers in 2025. His ability to induce weak contact is exceptional, ranking in the 95th percentile or better in both hard-hit percentage (30.3%) and average exit velocity (86.2).
Additionally, Brown’s fastball was particularly unlucky in 2024. Hitters posted a .249 batting average and .423 slugging percentage against it, despite an expected batting average of .221 and an expected slugging percentage of just .358. With a bit more luck and a reduced reliance on his sinker and cutter, neither of which proved particularly effective in 2024, Brown could make a significant leap forward.
Relief Pitcher: Hunter Bigge, Tampa Bay Rays
Pete Fairbanks enters 2025 as the Rays’ primary closer option. However, concerns regarding his health and effectiveness in 2024 create an opportunity for Hunter Bigge. Fairbanks’ strikeout rate declined substantially from 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings to just 8.7. His expected batting average against rose from .175 in 2023 to .256, while his expected slugging percentage against increased from .257 to .395. Furthermore, his average fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 to 97.3 mph.
Hunter Bigge posted similar statistics to Fairbanks in 2024, but his trajectory appears to be on the upswing. His fastball was hit for a .257 average but posted a .222 expected batting average against. Bigge’s putaway potential makes him a particularly attractive closer option. He boasted a 34% whiff rate and struck out 32.9% of batters faced in 2024, both of which are elite marks. While he struggled with walks at times, these issues largely disappeared after joining Tampa Bay. His walks per nine innings decreased from 5.4 to 1.9 upon his arrival in Florida. If he can maintain that level of control, he will be a valuable fantasy asset with exceptional strikeout potential.
