Europe’s Four Levers of Influence in the Ukraine-Russia Peace Negotiations
Liana Fix, a historian and political scientist specializing in German foreign policy, European Eastern Europe and Russia policy, and transatlantic relations, currently a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in Washington, D.C., sheds light on the European Union’s role in the ongoing peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
Since the Munich Security Conference, it has become evident that the United States intends to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia and Ukraine without European involvement. Understandably, this has frustrated European leaders. However, mere complaints will not suffice. Europe still possesses the ability to influence the negotiations in line with its values and to its own advantage – and that of Ukraine. To do so, Europe must step up its efforts and demonstrate that a peace agreement with European involvement would be superior to one without.
Europe has four tangible levers that can provide it with influence, and it is high time to utilize them.
1. Enhanced Financial Support for Ukraine
Europe can significantly increase its financial aid to Ukraine by confiscating frozen Russian assets – believed to total around $150 billion in Europe, which are currently not being managed effectively. Boosting Ukraine’s financial support at a time when Russia’s economy is under strain would shatter Putin’s hope of outlasting Ukraine financially. It would pressure him to negotiate a swifter end to the war.
The G7 nations are already using the interest on frozen Russian assets for an annual loan of $50 billion to Ukraine. However, this loan will not be sufficient in the long run. Rather than burdening European taxpayers, European leaders could utilize the untapped assets to enact a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine without incurring costs.
European concerns that the complete confiscation of Russian assets could render the Euro less attractive as a reserve currency and a viable alternative to the dollar are exaggerated, as relevant actors like China are unlikely to rely solely on dollar reserves. Seizing the assets would also be morally just, as it would constitute implicit Russian reparations to Ukraine.
Concurrently, assuming the bulk of the financial support would signal to the US that it should concentrate on arms deliveries to Ukraine, a task that cannot be substituted by Europe. This also aligns with the demands of Republican members of Congress – that Europe take on the financial support while the US provides the necessary military aid to Ukraine. At the same time, Europe should support Ukraine in negotiations concerning its raw materials. It is conceivable that the US could receive concessions in this area – but only in the future, not exclusively for weapons already supplied.
2. Security Guarantees for a Ukrainian Ceasefire
Europe can contribute to a lasting peace in Ukraine by providing military support to safeguard a Ukrainian ceasefire. Even though the outlines of an agreement remain unclear, Europe should express its willingness to assume this responsibility and proactively develop scenarios outlining the format, European involvement, and troop numbers required for such a mission.
For example, a robust European coalition of the willing could deploy 20,000 to 40,000 troops to deter Russia from violating a ceasefire.
These scenarios should also propose varying levels of US involvement. The US Secretary of Defense has unequivocally stated that there will be no US troops in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the US must play a crucial role in intelligence, logistics, and air support. It must also be clear that a Russian violation of a ceasefire agreement or an attack on European troops would trigger a US response.
3. European Involvement in Ukrainian Reconstruction
Europe’s involvement in Ukrainian reconstruction would not only demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine but also provide Europe with a long-term stake in the country’s future. By becoming a key player in reconstruction efforts, Europe can ensure that its values and interests are reflected in Ukraine’s recovery and development.
The EU has already pledged significant financial support to Ukraine’s post-war recovery, but member states could do more by providing additional funding, technical assistance, and expertise. Europe should also take the lead in coordinating reconstruction efforts and ensuring that aid is distributed fairly and effectively.
4. Diplomatic Engagement with Russia
Europe should maintain open diplomatic channels with Russia, even though it condemns Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Diplomatic engagement is essential for de-escalating tensions, preventing further escalation, and exploring potential avenues for a negotiated settlement.
European leaders should engage with their Russian counterparts to convey Europe’s concerns about the war, its impact on Ukraine and the wider region, and the need for a diplomatic solution. They should also use these contacts to communicate Europe’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
By engaging in diplomatic efforts, Europe can demonstrate its commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict and its willingness to work with all parties involved, including Russia.
Conclusion
Europe must seize the opportunity to shape the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. By utilizing its financial, military, diplomatic, and political leverage, Europe can ensure that its values, interests, and long-term security are taken into account in any potential agreement.
By standing united and acting decisively, Europe can play a vital role in helping to end the war in Ukraine and in building a more stable and prosperous future for Europe and the wider region.
