Egypt and China’s Joint Military Exercises Raise Concerns in Washington

Egypt and China concluded their inaugural joint military exercises on Sunday, a development that has sparked unease in Washington, D.C. The drills, dubbed "Eagles of Civilization 2025," involved aerial exercises, simulated air combat, and modern warfare lectures, showcasing China’s military capabilities and signaling a potential shift in Egypt’s strategic alignment. The exercises ran from mid-April until Sunday.

China deployed advanced military hardware, including J-10C fighter jets, KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft, and Y-20 transport tankers, demonstrating its growing military reach beyond Asia. This display of force, coupled with Egypt’s increasing military ties with Russia, has raised questions about the future of the U.S.-Egypt relationship, particularly given Egypt’s status as a major recipient of U.S. military aid.

For decades, Egypt has been a key strategic partner for the United States in the Middle East. Since the Camp David Accords, which normalized relations between Egypt and Israel, Egypt has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in U.S. military aid. This makes Egypt the second-largest recipient of U.S. military aid, behind only Israel. However, Egypt’s recent actions suggest a desire to diversify its partnerships and reduce its dependence on the United States.

"Egypt is essentially flouting us right now and looking to China, looking for more stable, long-term partners after nearly four and a half decades of stability in terms of the peace deal under Camp David," said Joel Rubin, a former State Department official who worked on the Egypt desk.

Egypt’s military arsenal includes a significant amount of U.S.-made equipment, such as F-16 fighter aircraft, CH-47 Chinook and AH-64 Apache helicopters, and Patriot missile defense systems. The potential for China to gain insights into these systems through joint exercises is a cause for concern among U.S. defense analysts.

Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, noted that Beijing would likely be interested in learning more about the "kinematic and electromagnetic" characteristics of NATO combat aircraft. While he acknowledged that the aircraft used in the exercises would likely be "degraded export variants," he emphasized that "Western designs are important to China."

The joint military exercises are seen as a way for China to bolster its ties with Africa’s strongest military and a longtime strategic U.S. ally. This development aligns with China’s broader efforts to expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa, regions of growing strategic importance.

Some analysts believe that Egypt’s outreach to China is a hedging strategy, designed to send a message to the United States. By demonstrating that it has other options, Egypt may be seeking to increase its leverage in negotiations with Washington.

"Egypt is hedging, showing the U.S. it has options," said Simone Ledeen, a former Deputy Assistance Secretary of Defense. "China is making clear it intends to expand its influence in the Mediterranean. Everyone should be paying attention."

Mariam Wahba, an Egypt-focused researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, echoed this sentiment, stating that "Cairo’s hedging tactics are not new. This has been a slow and steady effort, and this exercise marks a clear escalation. For Cairo, they want to diversify their patrons. Washington has long conditioned its aid to Egypt on human rights and democratization efforts. While the U.S. has routinely issued waivers on these conditions and allowed the aid to flow, Cairo does not want to remain beholden to Washington."

The United States has, in recent years, frozen and unfrozen portions of its military aid to Egypt due to concerns about the country’s human rights record under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Approximately $300 million of the annual aid package is conditioned on human rights improvements. This conditionality has likely contributed to Egypt’s desire to seek alternative partnerships.

Furthermore, the possibility of future aid cuts from the United States, particularly under an administration with a reduced appetite for foreign aid, may be another factor driving Egypt’s diversification efforts.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that a Chinese firm is allegedly aiding Houthi attacks on U.S. vessels, increasing tensions in the region.

The joint military exercises and Egypt’s growing ties with China present a complex challenge for U.S. policymakers. Some analysts argue that the United States should take a firm stance and potentially reduce aid to Egypt in response to its actions. Others argue that such a move could backfire, pushing Egypt further into China’s orbit and undermining U.S. interests in the region.

Rubin, for example, cautioned against threatening Egypt in a way that could push it away. "If we do threaten in a way that pushes them out, then even if we might feel justified morally, we could potentially be losing a crucial ally and partner, one that has significant impact on global shipping routes, counterterrorism work across the Arab Middle East, and we would be giving China a toe hold right into the heart of the Middle East at the worst possible time."

The Camp David Accords, according to Rubin, were instrumental in "peeling off the most important Arab military from the Soviet Union." Prior to the accords, Egypt was aligned with Russia’s priorities in the Middle East. "It was about getting them into our column, and this is a sign they may be again moving into a different column."

The situation calls for "very agile diplomacy," according to Rubin. "It’s indicative of the broader global uncertainty and panic about the Trump administrations position towards international affairs."

The United States must carefully consider its options and develop a strategy that balances its concerns about Egypt’s human rights record and its desire to maintain a strong strategic partnership with a key player in the Middle East. The rise of China as a global power and its growing influence in the region further complicates the situation. A misstep could have significant consequences for U.S. interests and regional stability.