German Foreign Policy Grapples with the Climate Crisis: A New Report Unveils Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment
Munich Security Conference to Mark Final Appearance for Climate Envoy Jennifer Morgan
Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s first ‘Special Representative for International Climate Policy,’ is set to deliver one of her final addresses at the Munich Security Conference this weekend. Appointed by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the former Greenpeace director was tasked with integrating climate action into diplomatic affairs, recognizing its growing impact on national interests and foreign policy.
Nike Report: Unveiling the Multifaceted Consequences of Climate Change
Now, three and a half years later, Morgan presents the culmination of her efforts: the National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment (Nike). Spanning 66 pages, this comprehensive report outlines the profound political and economic consequences of the climate crisis, both globally and within Germany.
Climate as a Defining Force: Beyond Renewables and Climate Activists
Climate change is no longer viewed solely as an environmental concern but rather as a transformative force with multifaceted implications for society. This perspective raises critical questions for policymakers seeking to safeguard Germany against future risks.
Security and Climate: An Indivisible Nexus
"We are living in a climate crisis, which poses significant security risks both globally and nationally," asserts the Nike report, adding, "Security considerations must encompass climate." Notably, the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) collaborated with three other organizations in compiling this assessment.
External Threats: Climate Impacts Join Geopolitical Tensions
BND director Bruno Kahl emphasizes in the report’s foreword that the agency identifies climate change as one of five major external threats to Germany, alongside an assertive Russia, China’s global ambitions, escalating cyber threats, and persistent international terrorism.
Emerging Conflict Zones: The Arctic and Beyond
The Nike report highlights a myriad of potential conflict areas, including lesser-known ones. As the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free, it gains strategic significance for NATO and competing actors, posing new challenges in security and defense policy.
Resource Scarcity, Mass Migration, and Food Security
In addition to geopolitical tensions, the climate crisis will exacerbate existing conflicts in the Global South. Rising temperatures will deplete scarce natural resources, leading to reduced agricultural yields, increased hunger, and displacement as people seek refuge from drought, conflict, or extreme heat.
Unprecedented Risks: The Path to Catastrophe
Currently, the world is on a trajectory for an average temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius, placing approximately one-third of the global population at risk due to inhabitable living conditions. This alarming scenario can be averted only by a rapid decline in global CO₂ emissions, a goal that current trends suggest is unlikely to be met.
Call to Action: Adaptation and Mitigation
The Nike report serves as a clarion call for policymakers to prioritize climate adaptation and mitigation measures. Germany, with its global influence and technological prowess, has a crucial role to play in shaping a sustainable future, reducing the risks posed by the climate crisis, and ensuring a secure and prosperous society for generations to come.
