The Climate Conundrum: Can Democrats Win by Prioritizing Climate Change?
The Democratic Party finds itself at a crossroads. Many within its ranks, particularly on the liberal wing, advocate for placing climate change at the forefront of the party’s messaging and policy agenda. They believe that a strong stance on climate is not only ethically imperative but also politically advantageous. The argument posits that by championing bold climate action, Democrats can energize their base, attract younger voters, and ultimately defeat Republicans in elections.
Former Washington Governor Jay Inslee, a long-time advocate for climate action, has been a vocal proponent of this strategy. In a recent opinion piece, Inslee contended that there is no inherent conflict between prioritizing climate change and winning elections. He argued that focusing on climate is, in fact, the best path for Democrats to regain and maintain power.
However, a deeper examination of voter priorities and recent election data suggests that Inslee’s thesis may be overly optimistic. While it is undeniable that young voters are more concerned about climate change than older generations, and that their support for the Democratic Party softened in recent elections, the notion that climate is the key to unlocking electoral success for Democrats appears to be flawed.
One of the core issues is the relative importance of climate change in the minds of voters. National surveys consistently reveal that climate change ranks low on the list of priorities for most Americans, regardless of age. When asked to identify the most important issues facing the country, voters consistently place greater emphasis on the economy, healthcare, jobs, and other bread-and-butter concerns.
For example, a Gallup poll conducted last year found that climate change ranked 21st out of 22 issues tested in terms of importance to voters. A separate Gallup survey conducted shortly before the election revealed that only 2 percent of Americans considered climate change or the environment to be the country’s most important problem. Similarly, a Pew Research Center poll published in February placed climate change at 17th among the biggest problems facing America.
While Inslee focuses on winning over young voters, arguing that declining youth support for Democrats was a key factor in recent election outcomes, this perspective overlooks a crucial point: Democrats also lost ground with older voters. Since older voters significantly outnumber younger voters, the party cannot afford to prioritize the concerns of the latter at the expense of the former.
Moreover, the priorities of young voters are not as distinct from those of the broader electorate as some might assume. According to exit poll data, only a small percentage of young voters listed climate change as their top issue. The vast majority prioritized the economy and jobs. While a larger percentage of young voters considered climate change a top-three issue, they still constituted a minority of the under-35 voting population. Notably, young Americans who did not vote in recent elections were even less likely to prioritize climate change.
Proponents of prioritizing climate change might argue that the public’s limited concern about the issue is a result of Democrats not adequately emphasizing it. They suggest that if the party centered climate change in its messaging, voters would begin to prioritize it. However, this argument overlooks the fact that Democrats, under the Biden administration, did make significant efforts to address climate change.
The Inflation Reduction Act, for example, included historic investments in clean energy. Biden and Harris also spoke frequently about the need to combat the climate crisis. Despite these efforts, climate change did not become a top-tier issue for the American public. It is also important to recognize that voters are already aware of the Democratic Party’s commitment to addressing climate change. Polling data indicates that voters recognize climate change as a Democratic priority, even if it is not their own.
The challenge for Democrats is not that voters are unaware of the party’s stance on climate change, but that the issue simply does not resonate with a large enough segment of the electorate to drive significant electoral gains. Voters who prioritize climate change are not very numerous. This reality is often missed by progressive donors and activists, who tend to be overrepresented among those who prioritize climate change.
On the issues that Americans broadly prioritize, such as the cost of living, the economy, and inflation, Republicans have often held an advantage. Focusing more rhetorical energy on climate change is unlikely to improve Democrats’ credibility on these bread-and-butter issues. To the contrary, there is a risk that it could harm their standing.
One of the biggest challenges facing the Democratic Party is that voters often do not believe that Democrats share their priorities. Polling data suggests that voters perceive a disconnect between their own concerns and the issues that Democrats are focused on. Voters are likely to mention economy, health care, immigration, taxes, and crime as their top concerns. They are likely to associate Democrats with abortion, LGBT policy, climate change, the state of democracy, and health care. This perception that Democrats are more preoccupied with niche social causes than the middle class’s core material needs can be detrimental to the party’s electoral prospects.
There are some tensions between cutting carbon emissions and increasing affordability in the near term. Some policies aimed at reducing emissions, such as blocking new fossil fuel projects, could potentially lead to increased energy costs. If Democrats signal that climate change is their overriding concern, some voters may conclude that the party is not committed to keeping gasoline or home heating oil affordable.
Republicans have effectively used messaging to portray Democrats as being at war with energy independence, blaming their policies for higher energy costs. This attack line has proven to be effective in swaying voters and undermining support for Democratic candidates.
It is not plausible that the party’s most electorally expedient message is one that centers climate change. This does not mean that Democrats should never discuss the climate crisis or advocate for policies to reduce emissions. However, the party should be careful not to overestimate the political utility of the issue.
Climate change is undeniably a top priority for progressive donors and activists, but it is not a top priority for swing voters, old or young. Making progress on climate requires removing the GOP from power. It will be difficult for Democrats to do that if they refuse to align their party’s priorities with those of the electorate.
