Climate Change: A Major Threat to National Security
Climate scientists and the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) have issued a stark warning about the grave consequences of climate change for the country’s national security.
"Natural disasters threaten the safety and property of Germans, jeopardize Germany’s economic prosperity, and lead to disruptions in critical infrastructures," reads a study commissioned by the German Foreign Office and presented at the Munich Security Conference.
In the report, titled "National Interdisciplinary Climate Risk Assessment" (NiKE), BND President Bruno Kahl highlights the consequences of global warming as "one of the five major external threats to our country," alongside Russia, China, cybercrime, and international terrorism. The report warns that warming could rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era by the end of the century if current climate policies continue.
The study outlines security risks up to 2040. "Because our globalized world relies on the interplay of many systems, even relatively small climatic changes can have massive socio-economic consequences by 2040," says Der Spiegel, citing the report. Climate change is resulting in a global rise in humanitarian crises and disrupted supply chains that also affect Germany and the EU. "In connection with and interacting with other factors, climate change exacerbates existing resource scarcity and food insecurity, which in turn can force migration," the report states.
"The climate crisis is the greatest security risk of our time," Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told Der Spiegel. Climate change destabilizes and intensifies conflicts over land, water, and food, and exacerbates migration. Those who let climate protection slide "threaten people’s livelihoods, their prosperity, our internal stability in Germany and Europe, and put global security at risk," Baerbock said.
"Every tenth degree less makes Germany, Europe, and the world safer." Emissions must be reduced to ensure this. "As a society, we cannot afford to expose ourselves to such climate security risks," Baerbock said.
The 77-page NiKE study was compiled by the Metis Institute for Strategy and Forecasting of the Bundeswehr University Munich, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Adelphi Research think tank, and the BND.
Key Findings
The NiKE study highlights several key findings:
- Natural disasters such as flooding, heatwaves, and droughts can cause widespread damage, loss of life, and economic disruption.
- Climate change is exacerbating conflicts over resources such as land, water, and food, which can lead to migration and instability.
- Climate-related disruptions to critical infrastructures, such as energy and transport networks, can have severe consequences for the economy and security.
- Climate change can increase the likelihood of humanitarian crises, which can strain international aid resources and create political instability.
Recommendations
The NiKE study provides several recommendations to address the security risks posed by climate change:
- Implement ambitious climate mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- Develop and implement measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change, such as building resilient infrastructure and developing early warning systems.
- Strengthen international cooperation to address the global challenges posed by climate change.
- Increase investment in climate research and innovation to develop new solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change.
Conclusion
Climate change poses a major threat to Germany’s national security. The NiKE study provides a comprehensive assessment of the risks and recommends urgent action to address this urgent challenge. By taking steps to mitigate and adapt to climate change, Germany can protect its people, economy, and security interests.
