The Power of Black and White: How Visualizing Climate Change as a Binary Can Spark Action

For generations, the arrival of winter in Princeton, New Jersey, meant one thing: Lake Carnegie transforming into a glistening expanse of ice, a natural skating rink drawing crowds from far and wide. It was a cherished annual ritual, a symbol of the season’s joy and communal spirit. However, this tradition has become increasingly rare. Princeton’s winters have warmed significantly in recent decades, making the ice too thin to safely support skaters. This change, a poignant loss for the community, is a direct consequence of a warming climate.

Grace Liu, while an undergraduate at Princeton University, recognized the significance of this fading tradition. In 2020, she embarked on a research project, meticulously documenting the changing ice conditions of Lake Carnegie. She delved into newspaper archives, piecing together a historical record of the lake’s freezing patterns. Crucially, she interviewed longtime residents, capturing their personal experiences and observations of the shifting winters.

Her research revealed a stark reality. Residents noticed the decreasing frequency of safe ice conditions, lamenting the loss of their beloved skating tradition. Yet, despite witnessing this tangible change, they often failed to connect it directly to the broader phenomenon of climate change. This disconnect intrigued Liu, prompting her to explore the psychological barriers that hinder public engagement with climate issues.

When Princeton University’s alumni magazine featured Liu’s research, the online comment section became a virtual gathering place for nostalgic memories. Alumni shared stories of skating under the moonlight, playing hockey games on the frozen lake, and enjoying warm drinks by the wintry shores. These personal anecdotes highlighted the deep emotional connection people had with the lake and the sense of loss they felt as the tradition faded away.

This outpouring of sentiment ignited a question in Liu’s mind: Could the palpable loss of a cherished experience make climate change feel more real and urgent to people? This inquiry served as the catalyst for a research study, recently published in the prestigious journal Nature Human Behavior, that explored the power of data visualization in shaping public perception of climate change. The study’s central finding was striking: presenting climate data in a binary format – a stark "this or that" – can effectively break through apathy and foster a sense of urgency.

Liu, in collaboration with professors at Princeton, designed an experiment to test how people responded to different visualizations of the same climate data. One group of participants viewed a graph showing the gradual increase in winter temperatures in a fictional town over time. The other group saw a chart presenting the same warming trend but in a binary fashion: the lake either froze in a given year, or it didn’t.

The results were remarkable. Participants who viewed the binary chart perceived climate change as causing more abrupt and impactful changes compared to those who saw the gradual temperature increase. Even though both charts represented the exact same amount of winter warming, the binary presentation had a significantly stronger effect on people’s perception of the issue.

Rachit Dubey, a co-author of the study and now a professor of communications at the University of California, Los Angeles, emphasized that the study was not about misleading people. "We are not hoodwinking people," he stated. "We are literally showing them the same trend, just in different formats." The key difference lies in how the information is processed and understood. The binary format creates a clearer, more immediate sense of change.

The strong reaction to the black-or-white presentation persisted across a series of experiments. Even when a trend line was superimposed on a scatter plot of temperatures to make the warming trend explicitly clear, the binary representation remained more impactful. To ensure the findings were applicable to real-world scenarios, the researchers analyzed how people reacted to actual data on lake freezing and temperature increases from towns across the United States and Europe. The results consistently mirrored the initial findings, confirming the robustness of the effect.

Dubey, a seasoned researcher in cognitive science, remarked on the unusual strength of the effect. "Psychology effects are sometimes fickle," he noted. "This is one of the cleanest effects we’ve ever seen." The consistent and powerful response to the binary visualization suggests a fundamental aspect of human cognition at play.

The findings have significant implications for how scientists and communicators convey the urgency of climate change. Instead of solely focusing on slow-moving trends and complex data, they should highlight clear, concrete shifts that resonate with people’s lived experiences. This could include showcasing the loss of familiar seasonal markers like white Christmases or the increasing frequency of outdoor activities canceled due to wildfire smoke.

The article draws a parallel to the metaphor of the "boiling frog," which illustrates the human tendency to overlook gradual changes. The frog placed in boiling water immediately jumps out, but the frog in slowly heating water fails to perceive the danger until it’s too late. While real frogs are more perceptive, the metaphor holds true for human perception of climate change. People adapt to temperature increases "disturbingly fast," according to the study, adjusting their sense of what is normal based on recent weather patterns – a phenomenon known as "shifting baselines."

Despite the escalating frequency and severity of weather-related disasters, climate change has yet to become a top priority for many Americans. In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, a Gallup poll revealed that climate change ranked near the bottom of a list of 22 issues, lagging far behind concerns like the economy, terrorism, and healthcare.

Dubey cautions against complacency, warning that "tragedies will keep on escalating in the background, but it’s not happening fast enough for us to think, ‘OK, this is it. We need to just decisively stop everything we’re doing.’" He emphasizes the danger of climate change remaining a peripheral concern, never reaching the critical threshold of public urgency.

While a single graph depicting lake-freezing data won’t magically elevate climate change to the forefront of public consciousness, Dubey believes that consistent exposure to compelling visuals can help prevent the issue from fading into the background. The study’s findings underscore the cognitive impact of binary data, which creates a mental illusion of sudden change, even when the underlying trend is gradual.

Jennifer Marlon, a senior research scientist at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, highlights the often-overlooked importance of effective data visualization. "We know that [data visuals] can be powerful tools for communication, but they often miss their mark, partly because most scientists aren’t trained, despite the availability of many excellent resources," she explained. She suggests that binary visuals can be a valuable tool for conveying the urgency of climate action, acknowledging that this approach may involve simplifying the complexity and richness of the data.

The study’s implications extend beyond freezing lakes. Global temperature changes can also be communicated in more impactful ways. The popular "climate stripes" visual, created by Ed Hawkins, a professor at the University of Reading in the U.K., uses vertical bands of color to represent temperature changes, with blue indicating colder years and red indicating warmer years. The striking shift from deep blue to deep red vividly communicates the warming trend on a visceral level. This simplified, binary-style image makes it easier for people to grasp the magnitude of the change.

Dubey concludes by noting that "Our study explains why the climate stripes is actually so popular and resonates with people." The power of binary data visualization lies in its ability to bypass apathy and create a sense of urgency, transforming abstract data into a tangible and emotionally resonant experience. By highlighting clear, concrete shifts, scientists and communicators can effectively engage the public and inspire meaningful action to address the challenges of a changing climate.