As Les Républicains witnesses two candidates, Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau, enter the race for the party presidency, what does former party president Éric Ciotti intend to do?
Certainly, since his alliance with the Rassemblement National (RN) in the legislative by-elections, the Var deputy is no longer a member of LR. However, he and his associates are closely following this emerging battle within their former political family.
According to our sources, Ciotti’s supporters are strongly tempted to support the Minister of the Interior, either openly or discreetly.
This week, the leader of the Union of Rights for the Republic (UDR) met with Bruno Retailleau. Although nothing has been officially decided, the subject of the LR presidency and Éric Ciotti’s possible support was subtly raised in the conversation.
Even though the camp allied with Marine Le Pen remains cautious, wanting to see how "the situation evolves," there is a "principle of reality" at play, it is said.
Ciotti’s Complex Position
Éric Ciotti’s position is complex. On the one hand, he has been a prominent figure in LR for many years, and he retains significant support within the party. On the other hand, he has recently made a number of controversial statements that have alienated some LR members.
In particular, Ciotti’s alliance with the RN in the legislative by-elections was deeply unpopular with many LR voters. As a result, it is unclear whether he would be able to unite the party behind him if he were to run for the presidency.
Wauquiez and Retailleau’s Candidacies
Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau are both well-respected figures within LR. Wauquiez is the current president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, and he is seen as a potential successor to Nicolas Sarkozy. Retailleau is the president of the Vendée department, and he is known for his conservative views.
Both Wauquiez and Retailleau have their strengths and weaknesses. Wauquiez is a charismatic leader, but he is also seen as being too close to the center-right. Retailleau is a more traditional conservative, but he lacks Wauquiez’s charisma.
It is too early to say who will emerge as the victor in the LR presidential race. However, it is clear that Ciotti’s decision on whether or not to support a candidate could have a significant impact on the outcome.
UDR’s Considerations
The UDR is a new political party that was founded by Ciotti and his allies in 2022. The party is positioned to the right of LR, and it is the main representative of the "nationalist right" in France.
The UDR is currently considering whether or not to support a candidate in the LR presidential race. According to our sources, the party is leaning towards supporting Retailleau. However, it is also possible that the UDR could decide to remain neutral or even to support Wauquiez.
The UDR’s decision on whether or not to support a candidate in the LR presidential race will be based on a number of factors, including the party’s assessment of the candidates’ chances of winning and the party’s own strategic goals.
Potential Outcomes
There are a number of potential outcomes to the LR presidential race. One possibility is that Wauquiez or Retailleau will win outright. Another possibility is that the race will go to a second round, in which case Ciotti could play a kingmaker role.
It is also possible that the race will be so close that no candidate will be able to win the necessary majority. In that case, the LR leadership could decide to appoint a new president.
The outcome of the LR presidential race will have a significant impact on the future of the French right. If Wauquiez or Retailleau wins, LR will likely move further to the right. If Ciotti plays a kingmaker role, the party could remain more centrist. And if the race goes to a second round or results in a hung parliament, the future of LR will be even more uncertain.
