Union Extends Lead in German Election Poll
Ten days before Germany’s federal election, the conservative Union bloc of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) has widened its lead in an ARD-Vorwahlumfrage poll.
According to the survey conducted by the infratest dimap institute, the Union parties have reached 32%, an increase of one percentage point from the previous week. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains in second place with an unchanged support of 21%.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens both lost one percentage point, both now at 14%. The Left party gained one point, reaching 6%, which would secure its re-entry into the Bundestag. All other parties remain below the 5% electoral threshold.
However, the business-friendly Free Voters (BSW) gained 0.5 percentage points, now standing at 4.5%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is still predicted to receive 4%, while other parties combined are expected to garner 4.5%.
Among the chancellor candidates of the four strongest political forces, Friedrich Merz of the Union bloc received the highest approval rating with 34%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) follows with 26%, and Greens candidate Robert Habeck with 25%. AfD candidate Alice Weidel received 19%.
However, 56% of respondents said they do not consider Merz to be a suitable chancellor.
Methodology of Election Polls
Wahlumfragen are snapshots of the political mood at a given moment. Since only a sample of eligible voters is interviewed, the surveys are also subject to statistical fluctuations.
To provide the most representative opinion, ZEIT ONLINE combines the results of all available polls on the Bundestag election in its Wahltrend.
For election polls, polling institutes regularly interview a four-digit number of eligible voters. Most institutes call both landline and mobile phone numbers, and online surveys are often also used.
Since not all population groups can be reached equally well for the surveys, the values are subsequently weighted according to socio-demographic characteristics such as age and gender. This creates so-called representative samples that are intended to reflect the composition of society as accurately as possible. The exact methodology of the institutes is usually not transparent to the public.
Poll values are always snapshots. They can only provide a rough indication of the current opinion. Even if the figures are close to reality at the time the poll is published, it is still not clear whether the voters interviewed at that time will actually cast their votes or change their minds at short notice.
