New Electoral Law May Leave Constituencies Without Representation
Introduction:
The newly implemented electoral law in Germany could potentially lead to situations where politicians secure a majority of votes in their constituencies but fail to enter the Bundestag, the German parliament. This could even result in entire constituencies being left unrepresented in the Bundestag, with one such scenario affecting the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the southwestern region of the country.
Background:
Under Germany’s electoral system, voters cast two votes: one for a direct candidate in their constituency (first vote) and one for a political party (second vote). Traditionally, the second vote determines the distribution of seats in the Bundestag, with parties receiving more second votes securing more seats. However, until now, if a party won more direct mandates (first votes) than its share of second votes, the winners of these direct mandates could still enter the Bundestag on so-called "overhang mandates." To compensate for this distortion in the Bundestag’s overall composition, other parties were granted "compensation mandates."
Changes under the New Law:
The new electoral law eliminates overhang and compensation mandates. To secure a direct mandate, it must now be supported by the party’s second vote result. For example, if a party wins 50 direct mandates in a state but only receives enough second votes for 48 seats, the two direct candidates with the lowest first vote totals would lose their Bundestag seats.
Impact on the CDU:
The CDU, traditionally strong in rural areas, usually wins the most direct mandates in Germany. In the 2021 Bundestag election, the party secured 33 out of 38 direct mandates in the southwest, with the Greens taking 4 and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1. While polls suggest that the CDU will remain the strongest party in the upcoming election on February 23rd, its second vote result may not be sufficient to allow all its direct candidates to enter the Bundestag. Estimates indicate that three to five mandates could be at risk.
Criticism and Concerns:
CDU state general secretary Nina Warken has criticized the new electoral law as "undemocratic" and argues that it undermines the will of the voters. She claims that candidates who win the direct vote but fail to secure a Bundestag seat will leave certain constituencies unrepresented.
Christoph Naser, the CDU direct candidate in Tübingen, echoes these concerns. He warns of a "worst-case scenario" where his constituency could become "orphaned," without any representation in Berlin. He stresses the importance of having local representatives to advocate for regional interests, such as public transportation infrastructure and universities.
Implications for Representation:
Political analysts believe that the new electoral law could reduce the representation of the CDU in major cities, as well as urban areas in general. Michael Wehner of the State Center for Political Education argues that this raises democratic concerns, as it could leave thousands of voters without representation. He highlights cities such as Mannheim, Karlsruhe, Freiburg, Stuttgart, and Lörrach-Mühlheim as potential constituencies at risk.
Furthermore, it is suggested that the electoral law could lead to a shift in the CDU’s internal dynamics, favoring more rural and conservative positions while potentially marginalizing urban and progressive voices within the party.
Reasoning behind the Law:
Ultimately, the new electoral law aims to limit the growth of the Bundestag. The current coalition government (known as the "traffic light coalition") has capped the number of MPs at 630, as the previous system of overhang and compensation mandates had steadily inflated the size of the parliament. In the 2021 election, 34 overhang mandates and 104 compensation mandates were awarded, making the Bundestag the largest freely elected parliament in the world.
