A Looming Threat? Historian Sönke Neitzel on the Urgency of German Defense

Professor Sönke Neitzel, a distinguished voice on German military affairs, paints a concerning picture of the current geopolitical landscape. A professor at the University of Potsdam, Neitzel dedicates his academic career to examining military history and the cultural underpinnings of violence. His expertise lends considerable weight to his assessments of contemporary security challenges. With his forthcoming book, "Die Bundeswehr. Von der Wiederbewaffnung bis zur Zeitenwende" (The Bundeswehr: From Rearmament to the Turning Point), scheduled for release in March by C.H. Beck, Neitzel offers a timely and insightful analysis of Germany’s military evolution.

In a recent interview with ZEIT ONLINE, Neitzel addressed the increasingly urgent warnings emanating from NATO and intelligence agencies regarding Russia’s potential for military conflict with the West. These sources suggest that Russia could be prepared for such a confrontation as early as 2029, leaving a scant four years for Western nations, including Germany, to bolster their defense capabilities. The central question posed to Neitzel was stark: Is the perceived threat as grave as it appears?

Neitzel’s perspective acknowledges the seriousness of the situation while advocating for a nuanced understanding of the potential conflict. He highlights that the narrative surrounding the imminence of war with Russia needs careful consideration, steering clear of both complacency and panic. He cautions against knee-jerk reactions driven solely by alarmist reports, urging a comprehensive evaluation of Russia’s capabilities, intentions, and the broader geopolitical context.

According to Neitzel, the Russian military has undoubtedly undergone significant modernization efforts in recent years. These include investments in advanced weaponry, improved training, and a demonstrated willingness to project power in regions like Ukraine and Syria. However, he also emphasizes that Russia faces substantial economic constraints and demographic challenges that could limit its long-term military ambitions.

He further argues that the prospect of a full-scale war between Russia and NATO is not inevitable. A range of factors, including diplomatic efforts, economic sanctions, and the credibility of NATO’s deterrent posture, can influence Russia’s calculus. The key lies in maintaining a strong and unified front, signaling to Moscow that any act of aggression would be met with a decisive response.

Neitzel’s expertise in military history informs his assessment of the present. He draws parallels to past periods of heightened tension between major powers, reminding us that miscalculation, miscommunication, and escalation dynamics can quickly transform a crisis into a conflict. He emphasizes the need for clear communication channels, risk reduction measures, and a commitment to de-escalation on all sides.

Regarding Germany’s specific role in addressing the perceived threat, Neitzel acknowledges the significant progress made in recent years to modernize and strengthen the Bundeswehr. The "Zeitenwende," or turning point, declared by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has signaled a renewed commitment to defense spending and military readiness. However, Neitzel also points to persistent challenges, including bureaucratic hurdles, procurement delays, and a shortage of skilled personnel.

He advocates for a more strategic and coordinated approach to defense planning, focusing on areas where Germany can make the most significant contributions to collective security. This includes investing in advanced technologies, enhancing cyber defense capabilities, and strengthening logistical support for allied forces. He also stresses the importance of fostering a strong and resilient defense industry that can meet the Bundeswehr’s needs in a timely and cost-effective manner.

Furthermore, Neitzel emphasizes that military strength alone is not sufficient to deter aggression. He underscores the need for a comprehensive security strategy that integrates diplomatic, economic, and political tools. This includes strengthening alliances, promoting regional stability, and addressing the underlying causes of conflict.

Ultimately, Neitzel’s message is one of cautious optimism. He acknowledges the seriousness of the security challenges facing Germany and the West, but he also believes that a well-informed, strategic, and coordinated response can effectively deter aggression and preserve peace. He warns against succumbing to fear or complacency, urging instead a proactive and responsible approach to defense policy. His forthcoming book will undoubtedly offer a more detailed exploration of these issues, providing valuable insights for policymakers, military professionals, and the public alike. The window of opportunity to prepare, according to current intelligence, is indeed narrow, making Neitzel’s analysis all the more critical.