New ‘Body Clock’ Tool Aims to Predict Disability and Death Risk

Researchers at the University of Washington (UW) School of Medicine have unveiled a novel "body clock" tool, dubbed the Health Octo Tool, designed to calculate an individual’s biological age and potentially forecast their risk of disability or mortality. This innovative tool leverages eight distinct metrics obtained from a patient’s physical examination and bloodwork to arrive at its conclusions, offering a potentially more comprehensive approach to health assessment than traditional methods.

The details of the Health Octo Tool’s methodology are published in the prestigious journal Nature Communication, shedding light on its potential to revolutionize how we understand and manage aging. Dr. Shabnam Salimi, the report’s first author and a physician-scientist at UW’s Department of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, emphasizes that this method surpasses current health assessments by considering overall wellness rather than focusing solely on individual diseases.

The Health Octo Tool draws upon data from extensive longevity studies to predict various age-related outcomes, including disability, geriatric syndrome (a cluster of common health conditions prevalent in older adults), performance on the Short Physical Performance Battery (a clinical assessment of lower extremity function in older adults), and overall mortality. The study boasts an impressive accuracy rate of 90% or greater in predicting these outcomes, highlighting the tool’s potential for clinical application.

Dr. Salimi underscores the significance of an aging-based framework, suggesting it opens new avenues for discovering biomarkers and developing therapeutics that target aging processes at the organ-specific or whole-body level, rather than addressing individual diseases in isolation. This holistic approach could pave the way for more effective interventions to promote healthy aging and extend lifespan.

At the heart of the Health Octo Tool lies the concept of "health entropy," which represents the cumulative molecular and cellular damage that the body accumulates over time. This damage directly impacts the functionality of organs and overall body systems, providing valuable insights into the rate at which a person is aging. By quantifying health entropy, the tool aims to provide a more accurate assessment of biological age than traditional chronological age.

The tool’s methodology begins by assigning a "body organ disease number," ranging from 1 to 14, based on the patient’s history of diseases affecting various organ systems, such as the heart, lungs, or brain. This approach acknowledges that different organ systems age at varying rates, leading the researchers to develop a "Bodily System-Specific Age" metric that reflects the aging rate of each organ system. Consequently, the "Bodily-Specific Clock" represents each organ system’s intrinsic biological age, providing a more nuanced understanding of the aging process.

Extending this concept to the entire body, the researchers define the "Body Clock" as a composite measure of overall intrinsic age and "body age" as the corresponding rate of aging. The tool also incorporates components like "Speed-Body Clock" and "Speed-Body Age," which measure how biological age affects walking speed, a key indicator of overall health and mobility. Furthermore, "Disability-Body Clock" and "Disability-Body Age" components assess the impact of aging on cognitive function and physical disability, providing a comprehensive evaluation of age-related decline.

One notable finding from the research is that seemingly minor health conditions, such as untreated hypertension in early life, can have a profound impact on aging in later years. This suggests that early intervention and treatment of such conditions could potentially slow down the biological aging process and promote long-term health.

Looking ahead, the researchers are actively developing a user-friendly digital app that will allow individuals to track their own biological age, monitor their rate of aging, and assess the impact of lifestyle changes on their overall health. This app will empower users to visualize how their body, and each organ system, responds to interventions such as adopting a new diet, starting an exercise routine, or taking longevity-targeting drugs.

Dr. Brett Osborn, a Florida neurosurgeon and longevity practice owner who was not involved in the tool’s development, commends the Health Octo Tool for its potential benefits and acknowledges its limitations. He highlights the tool’s reliance on readily accessible physical exam findings and standard lab tests, making it a potentially practical framework for clinical application.

Dr. Osborn also praises the Octo Tool’s focus on system-based aging metrics rather than disease-specific assessments, emphasizing the importance of considering the interconnectedness of organ systems in the aging process.

However, Dr. Osborn cautions that these types of biological aging clocks cannot fully capture the inherent complexity of aging. He emphasizes that aging is a multifaceted process influenced by a myriad of genetic, molecular, environmental, and psychosocial factors, making it inherently "analog" and "non-digital."

Dr. Osborn notes that the UW’s tool does not account for certain genetic and DNA processes that influence biological aging. He also points out that aging clocks have often fallen short when applied across diverse populations or when predicting individual outcomes, such as lifespan.

Instead of relying on these tools to determine absolute biological age, Dr. Osborn suggests using them to track trends over time. He believes that tools like the Health Octo can be valuable in evaluating an individual’s response to interventions, whether it be a new exercise regimen, medication, or lifestyle change.

Dr. Osborn emphasizes the importance of using comprehensive testing and tracking as a springboard to the formation of lifelong health habits. He believes that if the Health Octo Tool can bring an individual’s declining health to their attention and motivate them to take proactive steps, it can be considered a success.

The research supporting the development of the Health Octo Tool was funded by a National Institutes of Health grant from the U.S. National Institute on Aging, underscoring the significance of this research in advancing our understanding of aging and developing interventions to promote healthy aging and longevity.