Big 12: A Springtime Crystal Ball – Projecting the Conference Landscape

The Big 12, in its newly expanded form, presents perhaps the most intriguing and unpredictable landscape in all of college football as teams gear up for spring practices. Forget sure things; predicting the conference’s pecking order at this point is akin to randomly drawing team names from a hat. Kansas State? Arizona State? Kansas? Brigham Young? Iowa State? The permutations are endless, and the possibilities tantalizing. Even Texas Tech, Utah, and the potentially resurgent Colorado under Deion Sanders can’t be discounted.

More so than any other Power Four league, the Big 12 lacks a clear-cut favorite, a team universally pegged to cruise to a playoff berth and contend for a national championship. This parity, however, breeds excitement and genuine intrigue. The upcoming season promises a competitive free-for-all, a weekly battle where upsets are likely and the path to the conference title remains shrouded in mystery.

Below is a pre-spring peek at the conference hierarchy, acknowledging the inherent volatility and potential for rapid shifts in the landscape.

1. Kansas State Wildcats

The key to Kansas State’s success hinges on the continued development of quarterback Avery Johnson. In his second season as the undisputed starter, consistency is paramount. Johnson possesses the raw talent and athleticism to be a game-changer, but he needs to refine his decision-making and accuracy to elevate the Wildcats to the top of the conference. The pieces surrounding him are certainly in place. Kansas State’s transfer class needs to inject life into a defense that proved inconsistent in 2024. Offensively, the return of running back Dylan Edwards, who showcased his explosiveness with 196 yards in the bowl game following DJ Giddens’ opt-out, provides a valuable weapon. If Johnson takes the next step and the defense finds stability, Kansas State could very well find themselves atop the Big 12 standings.

2. Oklahoma State Cowboys

The defending Big 12 champions are a legitimate threat to not only return to the College Football Playoff but also advance deeper than last season’s quarterfinal exit. Oklahoma State boasts a roster brimming with experience and depth at nearly every position, the notable exception being running back. Cam Skattebo’s departure leaves a significant void that needs to be filled. The emergence of quarterback Sam Leavitt as a leader will be critical. While questions exist at running back, the Cowboys’ overall experience and championship pedigree make them a force to be reckoned with. They have the coaching and the infrastructure to navigate the challenges of the Big 12 and make another playoff push.

3. Kansas Jayhawks

Jalon Daniels’ health and performance are the lynchpins of Kansas’ aspirations. The quarterback’s return is a welcome sight for Jayhawk fans, but he must deliver, especially considering the anticipated changes elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest source of optimism for Kansas stems from their near-misses last season. A string of six single-possession losses highlighted their competitiveness, and improved play from Daniels after a sluggish start suggests a team on the verge of breaking through. If Daniels remains healthy and the offense gels quickly, Kansas could be poised for a Top 25 finish and a legitimate run at the Big 12 title.

4. Brigham Young Cougars

This has the potential to be Kalani Sitake’s best team at BYU. The Cougars’ defense, which led the Big 12 in scoring and total defense last season, faces the challenge of integrating several transfers while maintaining its dominant form. Offensively, BYU returns quarterback Jake Retzlaff, a strong running back group, and talented wide receiver Chase Roberts. This combination of returning talent and strategic additions makes BYU a team capable of surprising many in the conference. Maintaining defensive dominance will be key, but the Cougars have the pieces in place to contend.

5. Iowa State Cyclones

The Cyclones face a daunting schedule, with games against each of the four teams ranked ahead of them, all fortunately taking place in Ames. Despite the challenging slate, Iowa State boasts a third-year starting quarterback in Rocco Becht and the steady hand of coach Matt Campbell. Campbell’s track record of maximizing talent and building resilient teams makes Iowa State a constant threat. If Becht elevates his game and Campbell continues his coaching mastery, the Cyclones are certainly capable of winning the Big 12 and securing a playoff berth.

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech’s fortunes hinge on the seamless integration of what may be the best transfer class in the FBS. Coach Joey McGuire faces the task of blending these new additions with established standouts such as quarterback Behren Morton and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. On paper, the Red Raiders’ roster is brimming with potential, boasting the talent to achieve double-digit wins. The key will be how quickly and effectively McGuire can mold this diverse group into a cohesive and high-performing unit.

7. TCU Horned Frogs

The offense should be a significant strength for TCU, led by Josh Hoover, who has the potential to emerge as one of the Big 12’s top quarterbacks after throwing for 27 touchdowns last season. However, TCU’s focus needs to be on improving its defense. Under coordinator Andy Avalos, the defense showed signs of improvement in the second half of last season. If Avalos can continue that upward trajectory and Hoover continues to shine, the Horned Frogs could be a dangerous team, capable of upsetting anyone in the conference.

8. Utah Utes

Utah’s offense is a wild card with the arrival of former New Mexico coordinator Jason Beck and his quarterback from last year, Devon Dampier. The potential for this new offensive scheme to click is high, and if it does, the Utes could emerge as the most physical team in the conference. Pairing a potentially explosive offense with a traditionally solid defense could propel Utah back to nine or more wins.

9. Baylor Bears

Baylor looks to capitalize on a six-game winning streak to end the season, a stretch where the Bears played as well as anyone in the Big 12. The clear connection between offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and quarterback Sawyer Robertson, a potential all-conference contender, provides a foundation for success. Baylor is yet another team in this tightly packed conference capable of contending for the championship.

10. Colorado Buffaloes

Deion Sanders’ ongoing roster management experiment will be put to the test. While Colorado will be without stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, two of the most irreplaceable players in college football, the offense could remain efficient with the addition of quarterback Kaidon Salter from Liberty, especially if the running game shows improvement. A reasonable expectation for the Buffaloes is six or seven wins, showcasing continued progress under Sanders’ leadership.

The Rest of the Pack:

Houston, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, UCF, Arizona, and Cincinnati all face various challenges as they head into the spring. Houston aims for postseason contention with a strong defense and the addition of quarterback Connor Weigman. Oklahoma State seeks improvement after a winless league play, relying on coach Mike Gundy’s experience. West Virginia rebuilds under Rich Rodriguez, while UCF under Scott Frost aims to climb the Big 12 ladder. Arizona rebuilds after player exodus and Cincinnati seeks defensive improvement to support quarterback Brendan Sorsby. These programs will need to overcome roster uncertainty, coaching transitions, and defensive struggles to make their mark in the competitive Big 12 landscape.

The Big 12 in 2025 promises to be a wild ride, filled with unpredictable outcomes and intense competition. The spring will be crucial for these teams to establish their identities and lay the groundwork for a season of surprises. Buckle up, because the race for the Big 12 title is officially on, and anything is possible.