AfD Exploits Merz’s Failed Chancellorship Bid, Eyes Further Political Instability

The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has once again seized an opportunity to undermine the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its leader, Friedrich Merz, following his unsuccessful bid to become Chancellor. The party is relishing the disarray and using it to advance its own political agenda.

According to Tino Chrupalla, leader of the AfD parliamentary group, Merz’s failure was a "guaranteed defeat". This remark served as a harsh rejoinder to the German intelligence agency’s recent classification of the AfD as a "assured right-wing extremist" party.

The political context surrounding the chancellorship vote was already extraordinarily tense. For the first time in German history, a candidate for Chancellor failed to secure the support of his own coalition’s majority in the initial ballot. In this environment, the leader of the opposition ostensibly projected an image of constructive statesmanship. Merz fell six votes short of the required majority.

Amidst the ensuing turmoil, the AfD signaled its willingness to proceed with a second round of voting on the same day. This decision was later ratified by a majority of the AfD’s parliamentary leadership, though reportedly after considerable internal debate.

However, this facade of constructive engagement only represented one facet of the AfD’s strategy. The other objective was to exploit the crisis to the fullest extent possible.

"Of course, it is clear that Merz’s failure will be politically exploited by us," a member of the AfD parliamentary group stated.

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD parliamentary group, wasted no time in launching a fresh attack on Merz, accusing him of reversing his stance on fiscal policy. She criticized his support for multi-billion-euro debt packages in the previous Bundestag, claiming it contradicted his campaign promises. Weidel argued that the failed vote demonstrated Merz’s inability to command the support of his own party due to his "lies and deceptions."

Chrupalla echoed Weidel’s sentiments and called for Merz to withdraw his candidacy, urging him not to contest the second or third rounds of voting. Beatrix von Storch, a member of the AfD’s parliamentary leadership, took to social media to question Merz’s ability to pass critical legislation with his "weak" coalition, given his failure to secure the chancellorship. She asserted that a "political turnaround" was impossible without the AfD.

The AfD could not have wished for a better scenario. The party’s willingness to promptly proceed with a second round of voting was driven by the belief that Merz’s initial failure could create momentum for a second defeat. The calculation was that he would be unlikely to pursue a third round, making it imperative to act swiftly.

The AfD’s underlying motive was to provoke new elections and potentially force the weakened CDU into a governing coalition.

The AfD was unwilling to provide Merz with a majority without preconditions. Chrupalla stated that AfD support would only be forthcoming if other parties agreed to elect AfD representatives to the Bundestag’s presidium and grant the AfD its rightful chairmanship positions in parliamentary committees. Otherwise, there was no incentive to cooperate.

However, this was only the official position. Another strategy circulating within the party involved the AfD parliamentary group secretly casting some votes in favor of Merz in the secret ballot for Chancellor. The AfD could then claim credit for Merz’s success in the second round, further damaging his credibility by portraying him as a Chancellor dependent on AfD support. Leading AfD figures officially dismissed this scenario as insignificant.

"I don’t think it’s worth it," remarked Stephan Möller, a member of the Bundestag from Thuringia.

As inter-party discussions within the Bundestag indicated that the CDU and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), along with the Green Party and the Left Party, were prepared to proceed with a second round of voting on Tuesday afternoon, the AfD’s attacks intensified.

Rainer Kraft, an AfD member from Bavaria, posted on social media that the Christian Social Union (CSU) was now just a "bunch of Sacred Heart Marxists". Another AfD member labelled Merz a "Chancellor of the second class, dependent on the SPD and radical leftists."

The AfD amplified the narrative of a "cartel" uniting the established parties, with some accusing the CDU/CSU of having "no problem making deals with communists and anti-fascist leftists." Others referred to a "pact with the successor party of the Wall shooters." One member described a "unity party from the CDU/CSU to the Left Party", proclaiming that the AfD was the only alternative to this bloc.

The AfD’s attacks targeted a vulnerable point for Merz. The CDU has traditionally maintained a strict separation from the Left Party, guided by a party resolution prohibiting reliance on the Left Party’s votes. A similar "firewall" exists in relation to the AfD. However, the CDU adjusted its position, arguing that this principle did not apply to procedural matters. CSU leader Dobrindt reportedly engaged in direct negotiations with the leadership of the Left Party. For Merz, the Left Party was clearly the lesser of two evils compared to the AfD.

Stefan Möller, from Thuringia, characterized the mocking reactions of his party colleagues as normal. "A defeat in such a conflict-laden situation naturally triggers schadenfreude," he said. "These are political and human reflexes." The AfD likely expects that Merz and his red-black coalition will soon provide them with new reasons for such reflexes.