Trump Eyes Syria Deal Amidst Hope and Hesitation

President Donald Trump has embarked on his first major overseas trip since retaking office, arriving in Saudi Arabia with the ambitious goals of securing significant trade agreements and achieving diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East. A key focus of this trip appears to be a potential rapprochement with Syria, signaled by a planned meeting between President Trump and Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a prospect that has ignited both excitement and skepticism among analysts and policymakers.

Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), described the potential meeting as a "historic opportunity" for the U.S. to reengage with Syria, particularly given the shifting geopolitical landscape in the region. She highlighted the fact that the current Syrian government, unlike its predecessor, is demonstrably less reliant on Iran, and in fact, is displaying hostility toward the Islamic Republic. Hall argued that failing to capitalize on this shift would be a significant missed opportunity for the U.S.

President Trump himself has expressed openness to reconsidering relations with Syria, including the possibility of lifting sanctions imposed under the previous regime of Bashar al-Assad. "We may take them off of Syria, because we want to give them a fresh start," the President told reporters, adding that the U.S. wants to "see if we can help them out" and that a determination on Syria sanctions will be made in due course.

Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting democracy in Syria, recently met with Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus. Their conversation reportedly spanned over three hours and focused on the potential for a breakthrough in U.S.-Syrian relations, which have been severed since 2011 following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, a conflict that has claimed the lives of over 500,000 people.

Moustafa and others are actively advocating for a meeting between al-Sharaa and President Trump during the President’s visit to the Gulf. They view this as an opportunity for Syria’s new government to demonstrate its commitment to reform and cooperation, and to persuade the U.S. administration to reengage with a country emerging from a devastating 13-year civil war.

Hall elaborated on Syria’s objectives, stating that the new government seeks to address core issues of cooperation and to alleviate concerns held by the White House. She highlighted their efforts to demonstrate cooperation on intelligence matters, promote business opportunities, and engage with companies interested in investing in Syria.

Despite the potential benefits of reengagement, some experts urge caution, citing concerns about the nature of the new Syrian government and its leader. Robert Ford, former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, emphasized that while al-Sharaa is not currently restricting political and civil liberties, he is "an authoritarian by nature." Ford, who was the last U.S. ambassador in Damascus and was pulled from the embassy in October 2011 after the Syrian uprising turned violent, led the effort to put al-Sharaa on the terrorist list in 2012. He acknowledges that al-Sharaa is pragmatic but also stresses that he leads an extremely weak government that does not yet control all of Syria. Ford believes that reestablishing full authority over the country will take considerable time.

While Ford does not believe al-Sharaa will pursue terrorism as he did in the past, he cautions the U.S. to keep its expectations relatively low. He notes that Syria is currently weak militarily and economically, and plagued by internal political divisions, making it unlikely that the country will be in a position to enter into significant agreements with the U.S.

A senior official in the Syrian Foreign Ministry conveyed President al-Sharaa’s desire for a strong strategic relationship with the United States, "one grounded in mutual interests and shared partnership." The official added that Damascus sees President Donald Trump as the leader most capable of achieving peace in the Middle East and hopes that Syria can become an active and influential ally to Washington on regional issues.

Moustafa also met with members of the National Security Council, relaying the Syrian president’s desire for a new partnership.

The new Syrian leader has already taken steps to demonstrate his willingness to cooperate on issues of importance to the U.S. The new Syrian government has reportedly cooperated with U.S. intelligence agencies, helping to foil several ISIS plots to attack Damascus. Syrian intelligence services also arrested ISIS commander Abu al-Harith al-Iraqi in February.

Moustafa further stated that al-Sharaa is concerned about the buildup of Iranian-backed militias along the Iraqi side of the Syrian border, a concern shared by the Trump administration as it looks to reengage with Iran to curb its nuclear program.

According to Moustafa, al-Sharaa envisions a "deal of the century" that would bring peace to Syria and its neighbors, including Israel. He believes such a deal would keep China, Russia, and Iran out of the region and allow U.S. troops to withdraw responsibly.

Despite these potential benefits, critics caution that a deal with the United States faces significant obstacles. Al-Sharaa previously led the Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to victory over the Assad dictatorship in December. He had a $10 million bounty for his capture, which was lifted in February amidst the administration’s efforts to engage with the new Syrian government.

However, HTS remains a designated foreign terrorist organization, which complicates doing business in Syria. Caroline Rose, director of The New Lines Institute, raises the question of whether a change in behavior following the fall of the regime translates into a more permanent shift in character, ideology, and governance.

Rose, who recently traveled to Syria, acknowledges that HTS has been incrementally breaking away from affiliations with terrorist organizations and has adopted some moderate elements over time. However, she expresses doubts about the sustainability of these changes, particularly in light of recent sectarian tensions. Skeptics fear that lifting restrictions on Syria could be premature and could risk the U.S.’s credibility among its regional counterparts.

Since becoming president, al-Sharaa has formed a transitional government composed of close allies from the HTS rebel group, as well as technocrats, former opposition leaders, civil society activists, and even some former members of the Assad government.

A temporary constitution signed by al-Sharaa in March guarantees basic freedoms, such as freedoms of opinion, expression, and the press. It also protects women’s rights and promises equal rights for all Syrians regardless of ethnicity, religious sect, or gender. However, the country remains under Islamist rule during the transitional process.

Concerns remain about the concentration of power in the hands of the president. The president can unilaterally declare a state of emergency and suspend basic rights if national security is threatened. These vast powers granted to the executive in the new constitution remind many Syrians of the authoritarian past they endured under the Assad regime for over 50 years.

While there is a new sense of optimism within Syrian society about its future, civil peace and security remain elusive. Deadly sectarian clashes in March, allegedly launched by remnants of the former Assad regime in Syria’s coastal region, resulted in the deaths of 200 members of the security forces. Government-allied forces and armed civilians responded with excessive force. The Syrian Network for Human Rights reported that these groups were responsible for the deaths of at least 396 people.

Tensions have also escalated with Syria’s Druze population, highlighting the delicate balance of Syria’s complex ethnic divides and the new authority’s ability to control various armed factions. The Associated Press contributed to this report.