NFL Strength of Schedule 2025: A Look Ahead
The National Football League is a league of constant change. Predicting which teams will rise and fall each year is a fool’s errand, as surprises are the norm. Last year’s improbable ascent of the Sam Darnold-led Vikings and the Commanders’ shocking NFC Championship appearance proved that point. The Chargers’ impressive debut under Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers’ dramatic collapse further highlighted the NFL’s unpredictable nature.
Looking ahead to 2025, the task of forecasting contenders is as challenging as ever. Established powers like the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Eagles, and Lions are likely to remain in the hunt, bolstered by elite quarterback play and deep rosters. However, understanding the strength of schedule each team faces provides valuable insight into their potential success. A favorable schedule can pave the way for a turnaround, while a brutal slate can derail even the most promising teams.
Here’s a breakdown of the league’s strength of schedule for 2025, based on combined 2024 win percentages:
The Toughest Tests:
The New York Giants face a daunting schedule in a crucial season for head coach Brian Daboll. Their division rivals, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and the NFC runner-up Commanders, present a significant challenge with two matchups each. Adding to the difficulty, the Giants must navigate the NFC North and AFC West, divisions that boasted six winning teams and five playoff contenders in 2024. Their remaining opponents – the Saints, Patriots, and 49ers – are all projected to improve in 2025.
The entire NFC North faces a gauntlet of tough matchups. With a combined record of 45-23 last season, the division is set for intense battles both internally and against outside opponents.
The Chicago Bears, under new head coach Ben Johnson, face a particularly challenging path. Besides their divisional foes, they’ll battle the AFC North and NFC East, which collectively sent four teams to the playoffs, including the champion Eagles. To further complicate matters, the Bears also square off against the 49ers, Raiders, and Saints. Johnson will need to work wonders to propel the Bears into playoff contention.
The Detroit Lions face a brutal road schedule, playing nine games away from home. Only one of those road games is against a team with a losing record from last season (Chicago). Excluding the Bears, the Lions will face only two other teams who finished below .500 in 2024: the Browns and the Giants.
The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles face a challenging schedule. They play the NFC North and AFC West, both competitive divisions. Additionally, their non-divisional games include matchups against the Bills, Buccaneers, and Rams. Their road schedule outside of NFC East play is against teams that finished above 0.500 in 2024, five of those six non-divisional road games are against defending playoff teams.
The Dallas Cowboys, also from the NFC East, check in near the top of the list for toughest schedules. Their non-division road games against reigning playoff teams like the Lions and Broncos will be hard fought contests. At home, they’ll face the Chiefs, Vikings, and Chargers.
The Green Bay Packers face a similarly difficult schedule, with the NFC East and AFC North on their slate. They also have games against the Broncos, Cardinals, and Panthers.
The Minnesota Vikings face the NFC East and AFC North alongside their divisional games. They also have a home game against the Falcons and road games against the Seahawks and Chargers.
The Washington Commanders invested heavily in their offense this offseason, a strategy that should prove valuable against the NFC North and AFC West. They will also face the Seahawks at home and the Dolphins and Falcons on the road.
The Middle Ground:
The Baltimore Ravens face a tougher schedule than other AFC North teams due to their three games against division winners from last season. In addition to AFC North games, Baltimore plays the NFC North, AFC East, and division winners Texans, Chiefs, and Rams.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, like the Ravens, take on the NFC North and AFC East in 2025. They also face division runners-up the Colts and Seahawks at home and the Chargers on the road.
The Kansas City Chiefs face a tough AFC West schedule, playing against two other playoff teams. Outside of AFC West play, the Chiefs play the NFC East and AFC South. The Chiefs also have tough tests on the road against the Bills and at home against the Lions and Ravens.
The Los Angeles Chargers similarly have a tough schedule against the rest of the AFC West, the NFC East, and the AFC South. They will also play an international game in Brazil to open the season and also face the Vikings, Steelers and Dolphins due to the NFL’s rotational schedule.
The Cleveland Browns finished last in the AFC North but do not get a break in their 2025 schedule. They face two defending playoff teams in divisional play (Steelers and Ravens) and take on the NFC North.
The Cincinnati Bengals also have a tough slate in the AFC North and the NFC North. They will have road matchups against the Bills and Broncos.
The Denver Broncos take on two playoff teams twice in AFC West play and another two in their NFC East slate of games.
The Las Vegas Raiders take on three playoff teams in divisional play as well as the NFC East and AFC South this season.
The Easier Paths:
The Los Angeles Rams take on zero defending playoff teams in-division. They will face the NFC South and AFC South. Their other three games are tough with road matchups against the Eagles and Ravens as well as a home game against the Lions.
The Houston Texans have the easiest divisional slate of games by strength of schedule in the league. They will also take on the NFC West and the AFC West. Outside of that, they have games against division winners the Buccaneers, Bills and Ravens.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ schedule is one of the easier slates. They will also face the AFC East and NFC West. Tampa Bay will also host the Eagles and head on the road against the Lions and Texans.
The Atlanta Falcons‘ divisional slate puts them down the order of strength of schedule. They will host Washington and head on the road to face the Colts and Vikings.
The Miami Dolphins face the NFC South and AFC North.
The Seattle Seahawks‘ slate against the NFC West, NFC South and AFC South means they have an easier schedule right off the bat. They will face the Steelers, Vikings and Commanders instead of the Ravens, Lions and Eagles.
The Buffalo Bills‘ divisional slate puts them in a good spot in these rankings. They will also face the NFC South and AFC North.
The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ divisional slate is one of the easiest by strength of schedule. They will face the AFC West and NFC West.
The Indianapolis Colts‘ divisional slate is one of the easiest by strength of schedule. They will face the AFC West and the NFC West.
The New York Jets take on AFC runner-up the Bills twice and face playoff teams the Ravens, Steelers, Buccaneers and Broncos. Beyond that, it’s a relatively easier slate with games against the rest of the AFC North, NFC South as well as Jacksonville and Dallas.
The Arizona Cardinals face the NFC West, NFC South and AFC South in their rotation this season.
The Carolina Panthers‘ NFC South slate provides a good start for the Panthers in 2025. Matchups against the NFC West and AFC East include just two playoff teams from last year.
The Tennessee Titans tied for the worst record in the league last season and get an easier schedule in return. They also face the NFC West as well as the Browns, Patriots and Saints.
The New England Patriots take on the NFC South and AFC North. Home matchups against the Raiders and Giants as well as a road game against the Titans balances out their tougher games.
The New Orleans Saints face the AFC East and NFC West to round out the schedule which produced just two total playoff teams in 2024.
The San Francisco 49ers get the easiest slate in the league thanks to a number of factors. They face the NFC South and AFC South, the two worst divisions by total wins in 2024. Because they finished last in the NFC West, San Francisco will also face the Bears, Giants and Browns.
Strength of schedule is just one factor in determining a team’s success. Injuries, coaching changes, and player development all play significant roles. However, understanding the challenges and opportunities presented by the schedule provides a valuable framework for assessing each team’s potential heading into the 2025 season.
