CDU Leads in Rhineland-Palatinate, AfD Gains Ground
Mainz, Germany – With just over a week to go before the federal elections, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintains a clear lead in Rhineland-Palatinate, according to an SWR survey. However, the party’s support has dipped to 33%, representing a two percentage point loss compared to the previous poll conducted in December 2021.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains in second place with an unchanged 19%, but is now closely followed by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 18%, marking a two percentage point increase for the far-right party. The Greens have strengthened their position, gaining one percentage point to reach 13%.
Notably, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), The Left, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would fail to clear the 5% electoral threshold, each receiving just 4% of the vote.
The survey also explored the opinions of Rhineland-Palatinate residents on the Union’s handling of immigration in the Bundestag in January. The CDU had passed a motion for a stricter migration policy with the support of the AfD, but a draft law by the Union failed despite AfD support due to the absence of several Union and FDP members during the vote.
In the SWR survey, 42% of respondents expressed support for the Union’s decision to collaborate with the AfD in passing the motion. Approximately 25% agreed with the decision in principle but opposed the involvement of the AfD, while another 25% considered it a fundamentally incorrect approach.
Regarding the CDU’s chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, 47% of respondents believe he will adhere to his pledge of not forming a coalition with the AfD, while 41% express skepticism.
When asked which party the CDU should form a coalition with if it emerges as the strongest force on February 23, 33% of respondents favored the SPD. Notably, the AfD placed second in this question, garnering 17% support, a four percentage point increase compared to the December poll. The Greens and FDP trailed with 15% and 14% respectively.
In a separate question, the survey addressed the ongoing debate on border controls. An overwhelming 67% of respondents supported the proposals for permanent border controls, while 27% opposed them.
Implications:
The SWR survey paints a complex picture of the political landscape in Rhineland-Palatinate ahead of the federal elections. While the CDU remains in the lead, its support has declined slightly, providing an opportunity for other parties to gain ground.
The AfD’s steady rise is a significant concern, particularly in light of the survey’s findings regarding the Union’s collaboration with the party on immigration. The potential for a CDU-AfD coalition after the elections remains a divisive issue among Rhineland-Palatinate voters.
The survey also suggests that the issue of immigration continues to play a prominent role in the minds of voters. The public’s support for stricter border controls reflects the growing concerns surrounding this issue in Germany.
Overall, the survey results underscore the competitive and fluid nature of the electoral race in Rhineland-Palatinate, with several parties vying for votes and the potential for significant shifts in the political landscape.
