The Grand Legislative Steeplechase: Can House Republicans Clear the Final Hurdle?
The nation finds itself in that familiar lull between the thunderous Kentucky Derby and the prestigious Preakness Stakes. While Sovereignty, the Derby victor, won’t be vying for another crown in Baltimore, House Republicans are charging ahead, determined to complete their own "big, beautiful bill." Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., exudes confidence, daring anyone to wager against his party’s ability to deliver on their promises of tax cuts and spending reductions. "Stop doubting us," he declares. "We’re going to get this job done."
But beneath the bravado, a challenging legislative race unfolds. The article itself leans heavily on the horse racing analogy to drive the narrative home.
A Triple Crown of Challenges
Like the Triple Crown, this legislative effort comprises three arduous stages. Republicans are now entering the final stretch of this trifecta. However, the morning line suggests they might be facing increasingly long odds.
The first two legs were far from effortless victories. In February, securing the framework for the tax cut and spending reduction measure was a photo finish. The House GOP leadership seemingly made a mistake, then had to recall fleeing members to the chamber for a vote. Through some shrewd maneuvering, they shored up support and narrowly passed the initial framework.
April witnessed a similar struggle as Republicans attempted to align their framework with the Senate’s version. Again, they barely managed to drag the measure across the finish line, squeaking by with a razor-thin 216-214 victory. A single flipped vote would have resulted in a tie, effectively sending the "big, beautiful bill" to a legislative pasture.
That near-disaster only happened because conservatives extracted commitments from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., regarding substantial spending cuts. But those were promises about a different bill and a different vote. Now the House is working to translate all that into actual law.
Barely a Furlong In
Despite the Speaker’s optimism, House Republicans are still in the early stages of completing the final version of the bill. A fierce debate rages regarding the specific provisions to be included or excluded. Passage hinges on these details, and compromise will be necessary.
Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., highlights the contentious issue of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. "Everybody’s going to have to give, including the SALT provision," he asserts. Moderate Republicans, particularly those representing high-tax states like New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, are likely to demand the deduction to secure their support for the entire plan. Norman acknowledges that "each individual state is going to have to have some pain" before reaching the finish line. Speaker Johnson echoes this sentiment, stating that they will find an "equilibrium point on SALT" that may not delight anyone but will ultimately solve the equation and enable them to get the job done.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., expresses confidence that a solution can be found regarding the SALT deduction. She emphasizes the desperate need for relief among her constituents in Staten Island and Brooklyn, who face high taxes.
President Trump has also weighed in, insisting that lawmakers include specific provisions in the bill, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, as echoed by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.
Entitlement Cuts: The Toughest Hurdle
However, the most significant obstacles revolve around potential changes – or, more accurately, cuts – to entitlement programs. Republicans have floated the possibility of saving up to $550 billion from waste and fraud in Medicaid over a decade. However, skepticism surrounds this figure, with some suggesting it is markedly lower. Republicans disagree, with Speaker Johnson arguing that their findings indicate the improper payments figure is much higher and that they owe it to taxpayers to eliminate such waste.
Democrats are vehemently opposed to these proposed cuts. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., accuses Republicans of "lying to the American people," suggesting they might manipulate the numbers to cover the cost of tax breaks and address potential holes in the deficit. Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., the ranking Democrat on the Energy and Commerce Committee, echoes this sentiment, claiming that Republicans will "make up whatever numbers they want" because they know they cannot reach their stated targets.
The Looming Debt Ceiling
Adding another layer of complexity is the anticipated inclusion of a major hike in the debt ceiling within the bill. Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., pressed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the "X date," the point at which the federal government exhausts its ability to meet its obligations. Bessent likened the situation to an outfielder approaching the warning track, indicating the imminent proximity of the "wall." He nevertheless assured that the government "will not default."
Meat Cleavers and Hot Potatoes
The article references questioning of cabinet members about proposed department cuts. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., criticized Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins for taking a "meat cleaver approach" and "cutting without measuring." Collins defended his actions, stating his "goal" was to restructure his department and cut significant numbers of jobs.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins conceded that slimming down government is difficult and admitted that mistakes have been made. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., warned that Republicans will "rue the day" when they approve deep cuts, asserting that each Republican who votes for reconciliation and "bad budgets" will be left holding a "hot potato."
Odds and Ends
Opinions within the Republican ranks differ on the bill’s prospects. One senior House conservative believes passing the bill will be "easy" compared to the previous rounds, while another conservative and a moderate Republican contend that it will be "much harder."
While some might argue that Republicans have momentum after their earlier victories, horse sense suggests that the odds are against them. However, as the article points out, Capitol Hill is unpredictable.
Speaker Johnson and Republicans are facing a situation where they have limited options. They made promises to the public, and President Trump expects them to deliver. They promised it. Trump demands it.
The outcome hinges on Speaker Johnson’s ability to navigate the conflicting demands within his party and overcome Democratic opposition. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., is identified as playing a crucial role in ensuring party discipline and whipping up the necessary votes.
The Final Stretch
The article concludes with a vivid depiction of the legislative race, with the crowd roaring, the hooves thundering, and mud and dirt flying. The stewards are watching closely, and Speaker Johnson maintains that the House is on track to pass the package by Memorial Day. However, the task remains challenging, as Republicans attempt to pass a complex bill with a slim majority on what is described as a "sloppy track." The coming weeks will be a "wild ride" as Republicans gallop down the homestretch.
