The Papal Conclave: Betting Odds and the Quest for Francis’s Successor

The passing of Pope Francis on April 21st has ignited the age-old tradition and intrigue surrounding the selection of his successor. As 133 cardinals gather within the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel for the papal conclave, the world watches, wonders, and, in a more modern twist, places bets.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin has emerged as the consistent frontrunner in online betting markets. His probability of ascending to the papacy has surged to as high as 40% in recent days, reflecting a widespread perception of his suitability. However, as history reminds us, the preferences of gamblers do not always align with the decisions of the cardinal electors.

The unpredictable nature of papal conclaves is underscored by the election of Pope Francis himself. Back in 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was a long shot, with odds of 50/1, translating to a mere 2% probability, just two days before he was chosen to lead the Catholic Church. This stark contrast between pre-conclave predictions and the ultimate outcome highlights the complexities and nuances of the selection process.

Sam Eaton, the U.K. manager for Oddschecker, emphasizes the potential for surprise outcomes in the next pope betting market. He cautions against dismissing "outsiders," pointing to the unexpected rise of Bergoglio as a cautionary tale. Eaton notes that Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonça from Portugal, despite accounting for 7% of all bets placed on Oddschecker in the past month, still maintains long odds of 50/1 and is ranked as the 12th most likely candidate based on betting activity on their site. This illustrates the disparity between popular sentiment and perceived electability within the College of Cardinals.

The question arises: how reliable are these betting markets as indicators of the conclave’s outcome? If they failed to foresee Francis’s election in 2013, can the millions of dollars currently being wagered around the world offer any meaningful insight?

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University specializing in election outcomes and betting market predictions, offers a nuanced perspective. He acknowledges that conclave betting markets are unlikely to match the accuracy of those predicting secular elections. The latter benefit from vast amounts of polling data and other information, attracting billions of dollars in bets. However, Crane believes that conclave betting markets may still provide valuable insights into narrowing down the field of potential candidates.

"Does it have more predictability than if you just picked one out of 130 cardinals, and you gave them all the same chance of winning? I would say yeah probably," Crane asserts. He suggests that even limited information about a handful of cardinals can significantly improve the accuracy of predictions. With only 130 electors, the conclave presents a more manageable pool of potential outcomes compared to larger-scale elections.

Within hours of Francis’s death, online betting platforms like Polymarket witnessed a surge in activity, propelling Parolin to the forefront of potential candidates. He is widely perceived as a compromise choice, capable of bridging the divide between progressive and conservative factions within the Church. He continues to maintain his position as the favorite in most betting markets.

Beyond Parolin, several other cardinals have emerged as prominent contenders. Here’s a closer look at some of the leading candidates:

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin: As a Vatican diplomat and Francis’s Secretary of State since 2013, the 70-year-old Italian is viewed as a seasoned administrator and a potential unifying figure.

• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: The 67-year-old Filipino, formerly the Archbishop of Manila, is often dubbed the "Asian Francis" due to his shared commitment to social justice. His election would mark a historic moment, making him the first pope from Asia in the modern era.

• Cardinal Peter Turkson: The 76-year-old Ghanaian Vatican official, who serves as the president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, brings a unique perspective from one of the Church’s most dynamic regions, which is simultaneously facing challenges from secularism. He would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.

• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: The 69-year-old Archbishop of Bologna is known as "the Italian Bergoglio" because of his close alignment with Francis’s pastoral approach. He has a reputation as a "street priest" who prioritizes serving migrants and the poor, often disregarding traditional pomp and protocol. His election would mark the first Italian pope since 1978.

• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa: The 59-year-old Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem has gained recognition for his advocacy for peace in the Middle East. His criticism of both Hamas’s invasion of Israel and Israeli attacks on civilians in Gaza reflects his commitment to impartiality. However, his relatively young age may be a disadvantage.

• Cardinal Péter Erdő: The 72-year-old Hungarian, formerly the president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe, is considered another potential compromise candidate. While seen as theologically conservative, he is also regarded as pragmatic and has avoided open conflicts with Francis.

The conclave unfolds as a complex interplay of tradition, politics, and faith. The cardinals, guided by the Holy Spirit and their own discernment, will weigh the diverse qualities and experiences of the candidates before casting their votes. While betting markets offer a glimpse into public perception and may provide some insights into the potential frontrunners, the ultimate decision rests with the cardinals, whose choice will shape the future of the Catholic Church. The world watches with anticipation, knowing that the next chapter in the papacy is about to be written.