The specter of tanking looms large over the NBA, a practice the league has been battling for decades. Forty years after the inaugural NBA draft lottery, designed to discourage teams from intentionally losing to secure a top draft pick like Patrick Ewing, the lottery remains a crucial event. The 2025 NBA draft lottery, scheduled for Monday, May 12th in Chicago, promises high stakes and potential franchise-altering outcomes. This year, the consensus top prospect is Duke’s Cooper Flagg, a one-and-done star widely coveted by teams seeking a cornerstone player.
The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets enter the lottery with the highest probabilities of landing the coveted No. 1 pick. Their dismal performances during the 2024-25 regular season earned them the three worst records in the league, granting them the best mathematical chances in the lottery drawing. However, the NBA draft lottery system ensures that all fourteen teams that failed to qualify for the playoffs have a shot, however slim, at securing the top pick. The intrigue lies not only in the top three teams but also in the potential for a team further down the standings to defy the odds and leapfrog their way to the number one selection.
Adding another layer of complexity are the conditional draft picks involved. The Houston Rockets possess the Phoenix Suns’ first-round pick, acquired through a previous trade with the Brooklyn Nets. This means that the Rockets’ fortunes in the lottery are tied not only to their own performance but also to the Suns’ place in the standings. Similarly, the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings have first-round picks that could be conveyed to other teams based on the lottery’s outcome. The 76ers’ pick is headed to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top six, while the Kings’ pick will go to the Atlanta Hawks if it lands outside the top twelve.
The San Antonio Spurs find themselves in a particularly advantageous position, holding two picks in the lottery. They own their own first-round selection, in addition to the Hawks’ first-round pick obtained in the 2022 trade that sent Dejounte Murray to Atlanta. This gives the Spurs multiple opportunities to improve their draft position and potentially add another high-impact player to their roster alongside their current star, Victor Wembanyama.
The lottery’s outcome will significantly impact the future trajectory of several NBA franchises. Landing Cooper Flagg, the potential No. 1 pick, could provide a team with a foundational player capable of leading them for years to come. The lottery results will also determine which teams can select from the group of other highly regarded prospects in the 2025 draft class, filling needs and adding talent to their rosters.
The mechanics of the NBA draft lottery are designed to create a balance between rewarding struggling teams and preventing blatant tanking. The lottery involves fourteen ping pong balls, numbered 1 through 14. These balls are placed in a lottery machine, and four balls are drawn at random. The 1,001 possible combinations of four numbers are then assigned to the 14 lottery teams, with teams having worse records receiving more combinations. The team whose combination is drawn first wins the No. 1 pick. This process is repeated to determine the second, third, and fourth picks. The remaining lottery teams are then assigned draft slots based on their regular-season records, with the team with the worst record selecting fifth, and so on.
Since 2019, the NBA has implemented changes to the lottery system to further discourage tanking. The team with the worst record is now guaranteed to pick no lower than fifth overall. In addition, the odds for the teams with the three worst records were leveled, giving them each a 14% chance of winning the lottery. These adjustments aim to create a more equitable system and prevent teams from having an overwhelming incentive to tank.
The 2025 NBA draft lottery will be broadcast live on ESPN, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, May 12th, before the conference semifinal action resumes. The event will provide intrigue and suspense as the fates of several NBA teams hang in the balance. The lottery determines the order of selection for the 2025 NBA draft, which will be held in June.
The specific odds for each team to win the No. 1 pick and secure a top-four pick are calculated by the NBA after applying draft lottery rules and any tiebreaking procedures. Organizations like Tankathon also provide projections based on the lottery odds.
The Philadelphia 76ers’ first-round pick is protected, meaning it will remain with the 76ers if it falls within the top six selections. However, if the pick falls outside the top six, it will be conveyed to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of a previous trade.
Similarly, the Sacramento Kings’ first-round pick is protected, remaining with the Kings if it lands within the top twelve selections. If the pick falls outside the top twelve, it will be conveyed to the Atlanta Hawks.
The Houston Rockets are in possession of the Phoenix Suns’ first-round pick, acquired via a pick swap with Brooklyn. This pick has no protections, meaning the Rockets will receive it regardless of where it falls in the draft order.
The San Antonio Spurs have the Atlanta Hawks’ first-round pick due to the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade. This pick also has no protections, giving the Spurs an additional lottery pick.
The 2025 NBA draft lottery promises to be a captivating event, with significant implications for the future of numerous NBA franchises. The opportunity to draft a player like Cooper Flagg, coupled with the complexities of conditional draft picks, creates a high-stakes environment where fortunes can be made or lost in a matter of moments. The lottery exemplifies the NBA’s ongoing efforts to balance competition, fairness, and the long-term development of its teams.
