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The Next Pope: Will America Ever Have a Chance?

The world is once again turning its gaze toward Vatican City, as the College of Cardinals prepares to convene a conclave on May 7th. Their solemn task: to elect the 267th successor to St. Peter, following the passing of Pope Francis on April 21st at the age of 88. As speculation intensifies, one question lingers: could the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church hail from the United States?

History suggests a long-shot. Of the 266 popes to date, a staggering 217 have been Italian. Pope Francis broke ground as the first pontiff from Latin America, shattering centuries of European dominance. Yet, the United States remains uncharted territory in the papal lineage. Despite this historical precedent, the possibility, however slim, of an American pope always sparks curiosity and debate.

Adding a touch of levity to the discourse, former President Donald Trump recently quipped that he would like to be considered for the position. "I’d like to be pope," Trump told reporters outside the White House, adding, "That would be my No. 1 choice." The remark, clearly tongue-in-cheek, drew a playful response from Senator Lindsey Graham, who jokingly endorsed Trump’s hypothetical candidacy. While this comedic interlude highlights the global fascination with the papacy, it does little to alter the objective realities of the selection process.

Nevertheless, within the American Catholic clergy, two figures are drawing considerable attention as potential candidates, albeit with contrasting profiles. Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, stands as a prominent conservative voice and a known critic of Pope Francis’ more progressive policies. His traditionalist views and unwavering adherence to doctrinal orthodoxy have garnered him a dedicated following among conservative Catholics. However, his outspoken opposition to Pope Francis led to his removal as the Vatican’s high court justice in 2014, a move that may have diminished his chances of gaining widespread support within the conclave.

In contrast, Cardinal Joseph Tobin, 72, the Archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, represents a more moderate and pastoral approach. Appointed a cardinal by Pope Francis, Tobin is seen as aligned with the current pontiff’s emphasis on social justice, outreach to marginalized communities, and a more inclusive vision of the Church. His appointment as cardinal by Francis indicates his alignment with the current pontiff’s values and vision, potentially making him a more palatable option for a broader range of cardinals.

Despite the presence of these noteworthy American contenders, experts remain skeptical about their prospects. Melissa Wilde, a sociologist of religion and inequality and chairperson of the Department of Sociology at the University of Pennsylvania, acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of the conclave. However, based on geographical considerations, she suggests that the next pope is unlikely to be either Latin American or American.

"It will not be another Latin American, it will most likely not be an American, but this could be the wild card," Wilde stated. "I would say Asian or African, if not one of them, American, if not one of them, an Italian."

Her analysis points to a growing recognition within the Church of the need for greater representation from the developing world. The burgeoning Catholic populations in Asia and Africa make these continents logical sources for future papal leadership. An Asian or African pope would send a powerful message of inclusivity and reflect the increasingly globalized nature of the Church.

The Rev. James Bretzke, a theology professor at John Carroll University in Ohio, echoes this sentiment, suggesting that American candidates may face significant hurdles due to the perception of the United States on the world stage. He argues that the pope must be a diplomat who can be accepted globally, representing a diverse cross-section of cultures and viewpoints.

Bretzke believes that Cardinal Burke, despite his influence among conservative circles, might only garner a few votes in the early rounds of the conclave. As the voting progresses, his supporters may gravitate toward other conservative candidates with greater momentum.

"America’s image in the world simply is too powerful – and to be blunt, ugly," Bretzke asserts. He suggests that the global perception of American power and influence, coupled with the nation’s political polarization and social divisions, could hinder the election of an American pope. The concern is that an American pontiff might be seen as representing a particular geopolitical agenda, rather than serving as a universal spiritual leader.

Historically, Italians were favored within the Church due to their perceived diplomatic skills and ability to bridge ethnic divides. While this factor may be less decisive now, the need for a pope who can unite a diverse and global flock remains paramount.

The Rev. Patrick Flanagan, Associate Professor of Theology and Religious Studies at St. John’s University in New York, offers a cautionary note to any cardinal harboring papal ambitions. He cites the adage, "in pope, out cardinal," meaning that cardinals who enter the conclave with the expectation of being elected often leave still holding only the title of cardinal. The process is known to be unpredictable, with dark horse candidates often emerging victorious.

The selection of a new pope is a complex interplay of theological considerations, political maneuvering, and divine guidance. While the possibility of an American pope cannot be entirely dismissed, the historical precedent, the geopolitical landscape, and the internal dynamics of the Church suggest that it remains an unlikely outcome. The College of Cardinals faces the weighty responsibility of choosing a leader who can navigate the challenges of the 21st century, uphold the traditions of the Church, and inspire the world with a message of faith, hope, and unity. The world awaits the white smoke that will signal the dawn of a new papacy.