The Papal Conclave: A Gamble Through the Ages

The air crackles with anticipation. Whispers of potential successors echo through the hallowed halls of the Vatican and beyond. The Catholic Church is poised to select its next leader, and as the cardinals gather in Rome, a time-honored, albeit controversial, tradition reignites: betting on the papal election.

It’s a practice that stretches back centuries, a curious blend of faith, politics, and human desire to predict the unpredictable. While not sanctioned by the Church and often relegated to the shadows in some parts of the world, wagering on the next pope is a thriving, if somewhat clandestine, activity, particularly in Europe.

"Gamblers will seek to place wagers of any type, whether it’s football or popes," observes Bill Ordine, a veteran gambling writer. "This is a lot harder to pick than, say, the number one pick in the NFL draft." Indeed, discerning the next leader of the world’s Catholics is a far cry from analyzing athletic prowess or team dynamics. It involves navigating complex theological stances, political allegiances, and the opaque inner workings of the Vatican.

The legality of papal betting remains a gray area. In the United States, placing an official bet at a casino or through a major online platform is virtually impossible. However, numerous websites offer odds and analysis, fueling informal betting pools among friends and neighbors. R. Andrew Chesnut, a chair in Catholic studies, notes that this trend is part of a larger societal inclination to wager on everything, from celebrity deaths to current events. "Everything’s become bettable these days, so it’s no surprise that this would, too. It’s something of interest to billions."

The Church, however, takes a dim view of the practice. Father Paul Keller of the Diocese of Columbus argues that it is "indecorous, indecent, and shameful" to equate the selection of a pope with a horserace or roulette wheel. Despite these objections, the allure of predicting the next pontiff remains strong, drawing in both seasoned pundits and casual punters.

As the conclave approaches, speculation swirls around potential candidates. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the former archbishop of Manila, is seen by some as a potential "Asian Francis," bringing a new perspective to the papacy. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a seasoned Vatican diplomat, could represent a compromise between progressive and conservative factions. Other names in the mix include former contender Peter Erdo from Hungary and American Cardinal Joseph Tobin. The question of whether the next pope will be Italian, or from the burgeoning Catholic communities of Africa, also looms large.

Oddsmakers closely monitor these developments, adjusting their predictions based on news, rumors, and perceived shifts in Vatican sentiment. Online Betting Guide, a British site, highlights Parolin’s rise to the top of the list, attributing it to his deep roots within the Vatican and his diplomatic prowess. While Tagle retains strong support, some bettors may be seeking a candidate who can unify more traditional elements within the Church.

Beyond the identity of the next pope, bettors can also wager on the name the new pontiff will choose and their nationality. While Italy remains a likely source, oddsmakers currently favor "a country that has never had a pope," reflecting a growing openness to candidates from diverse backgrounds. "I’m old enough to remember that if the guy wasn’t Italian, he wasn’t going to be the pope," recalls Ordine. However, the last several papal elections have defied this norm, with popes hailing from Poland, Germany, and Argentina.

The historical roots of papal gambling run deep. Records indicate that the practice was widespread in 16th-century Rome, with bets placed not only on papal elections but also on cardinal appointments and even papal activities. One account describes early instances of insider trading, with merchants allegedly receiving information from cardinals’ attendants within the conclave.

In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV attempted to curb the practice by banning it under penalty of excommunication. However, this edict was later abrogated, and wagering on papal elections persisted, albeit often underground. Press coverage from the late 19th and early 20th centuries reveals continued betting activity around Vatican conclaves.

The resignation of Pope Benedict XVI in 2013 further fueled global interest in papal betting. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power described the event as "the biggest non-sports betting market of all time." While Ghana’s Peter Turkson was initially favored, the election ultimately went to Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, a longshot candidate.

In the modern era, sports gambling is more accepted in the United Kingdom and continental Europe than in the United States. The legalization of sports betting in the U.S. has led to a greater cultural acceptance of gambling in general, but papal elections remain outside the scope of regulated sports betting due to concerns about potential inside information and lack of control.

While some prediction market platforms have attempted to offer avenues for betting on current events, including elections, these platforms have faced legal challenges and controversy. Ultimately, most wagering on the papal conclave is likely to occur informally among friends and acquaintances, similar to Super Bowl squares.

Despite the passionate coverage from gamblers, the true nature of the papal election is a mystery. As Religion News Service discovered in 2013 with their bracket competition, it is truly anyones guess.

Ultimately, Ordine suggests that betting on the papal election is often a lighthearted affair, driven more by curiosity than serious investment. Unlike sports betting, where knowledge and expertise are seen as crucial, picking the next pope is often a matter of chance.

Professor Kenneth Pennington even mentioned if he were a betting man he would wager on Erdo, of Hungary, as he had the pleasure of hosting him for dinner.

As the cardinals prepare to enter the Sistine Chapel, the world watches and wagers. The stakes are high, not just for the bettors, but for the future of the Catholic Church.