Papal Conclave 2024: A Guide to the Selection of Pope Francis’ Successor

The world is poised to witness a pivotal moment in the history of the Catholic Church as the upcoming papal conclave draws near. Following the passing of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, April 21st, an assembly of cardinals will converge upon Vatican City to elect his successor. This sacred and secretive process, steeped in tradition, will determine the next leader of the global Catholic community.

More than 130 cardinals, representing diverse backgrounds and perspectives within the Church, are expected to arrive in Vatican City within the week preceding the conclave. These cardinals, entrusted with the weighty responsibility of choosing the next pope, will participate in a meticulously structured process governed by centuries-old customs and regulations.

The conclave, scheduled to commence on Wednesday, May 7th, is an event shrouded in secrecy. Cardinals are sequestered from the outside world, forbidden from communicating with anyone beyond the confines of the Vatican. This strict isolation is intended to ensure that the selection process remains free from external pressures and influences, allowing the cardinals to deliberate and vote with impartiality.

Despite the inherent secrecy, the outside world remains keenly aware of the proceedings, eagerly awaiting the signal that will announce the election of a new pope. Thousands of onlookers will gather in Rome, their eyes fixed on the iconic Sistine Chapel chimney, the source of the symbolic smoke signals that will communicate the cardinals’ progress.

The smoke signals, a tradition dating back centuries, provide a visual representation of the cardinals’ decisions. Black smoke billowing from the chimney signifies that no candidate has yet secured the necessary two-thirds majority vote. This indicates that the cardinals must continue their deliberations and voting process. Conversely, white smoke signifies that a new pope has been elected. This momentous announcement is met with jubilation and anticipation as the world awaits the unveiling of the new pontiff.

The death of Pope Francis, the Church’s 266th pontiff, at the age of 88, marked the end of a significant chapter in Catholic history. Known for his progressive ideals and efforts to bridge divides within the Church, Pope Francis left an indelible mark on the global stage. However, his progressive stance may have also contributed to the existing tensions between conservative and liberal factions within the Church, potentially influencing the dynamics of the upcoming conclave.

Matthew Gabriele, a medieval studies professor at Virginia Tech, suggests that the upcoming conclave may be more protracted than usual due to the potentially stronger ideological divides among the eligible cardinals. The cardinals’ differing perspectives on the Church’s direction and priorities could lead to protracted negotiations and multiple rounds of voting before a consensus is reached.

The papal conclave is an election of a new pope, conducted by the College of Cardinals − bishops and Vatican officials selected by the pope. As of May 1, 135 cardinals are eligible to vote in the conclave, according to The Holy Sees College of Cardinals Dashboard.

During the conclave, the cardinals are sequestered. They may not communicate with the outside world and vice versa.

Before voting, the cardinals discuss the needs and challenges facing the Catholic Church. They then gather in St. Peters Basilica to invoke the guidance of the Holy Spirit on who should be the successor, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.

For the actual election, the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel, take an oath of secrecy and seal the churchs doors. Each cardinal votes by secret ballot. He says a prayer and then drops his ballot in a large chalice, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.

If one candidate does not receive a two-thirds majority vote, another election is held. This process is repeated until one candidate has received the necessary votes.

The longest conclave in history lasted nearly three years (34 months) with the election of Pope Gregory X in 1271, according to EWTN Vatican. On the flip side, Pope Francis was elected just one day after the conclave began in 2013.

Because the cardinals are sequestered during a conclave, black or white smoke, which bellows from a Sistine Chapel chimney, is used to represent the cardinals decisions for the day.

If one candidate doesnt receive the necessary two-thirds vote, the ballots are burned in a stove with a mixture of chemicals to produce black smoke. The black smoke indicates more voting is ahead.

If a candidate is selected, the final round of ballots are burned with chemicals to produce white smoke.

There isnt an exact timing for the smoke signals that occur during a conclave, but experts use past conclaves to make educated guesses.

Gabriele said that on the conclaves first day − May 7 − it is likely that the cardinals will only conduct one round of voting, as the majority of the day will be spent taking care of introductory business, including a special sermon led by one of the churchs top officials. White or black smoke could be expected around 7-8 p.m. local time (1-2 p.m. ET).

If a final decision isnt made the first day, folks can expect the next smoke signal to be shared mid-morning the next day − Thursday, May 8.

Typically, the cardinals can fit four rounds of voting into one day, if one candidate is not selected. If this is the case, Gabriele said smoke signals will occur around mid-morning, noon, mid-afternoon and evening.

The Catholic magazine America predicts the same, with signals at around 10:30 a.m., noon, 5:30 p.m. and after 7 p.m. local time − (4:30 a.m., 6 a.m., 11:30 a.m. and after 1 p.m. ET).

In 2013, during the conclave in which Pope Francis was elected, the first black smoke signal was spotted at about 7:41 p.m. local time, America Magazine reported.

The conclave’s procedures are steeped in symbolism and tradition. Before commencing the election, the cardinals gather in St. Peter’s Basilica to invoke the guidance of the Holy Spirit, seeking divine inspiration in their momentous task. Following this, they proceed to the Sistine Chapel, where they take an oath of secrecy, vowing to uphold the confidentiality of the conclave’s deliberations. The doors of the chapel are then sealed, marking the official commencement of the election process.

Each cardinal casts his vote by secret ballot, writing the name of his chosen candidate on a slip of paper. After praying for guidance, he places the ballot in a large chalice, ensuring the anonymity of his selection. If no candidate receives the required two-thirds majority, the ballots are burned, and black smoke is released, signaling that further voting is necessary. This process is repeated until a candidate emerges with the requisite support.

The duration of papal conclaves can vary considerably. The longest conclave in history, which took place in 1271, lasted nearly three years (34 months) before Pope Gregory X was elected. In contrast, the conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013 concluded in just one day. The length of the upcoming conclave will depend on the cardinals’ ability to reach a consensus and overcome any ideological divisions that may exist.

As the world awaits the outcome of the conclave, speculation abounds regarding the potential candidates and the direction in which the new pope will lead the Catholic Church. The election of Pope Francis’ successor represents a critical juncture in the Church’s history, with the new pontiff inheriting a complex set of challenges and opportunities. His leadership will shape the Church’s response to pressing issues such as social justice, climate change, interreligious dialogue, and the ongoing need for reform and renewal.