March Madness Musings: SEC Dominance, Potential Final Four and BYU’s Offensive Prowess
The first week of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament has concluded, and while March’s characteristic mayhem was somewhat subdued compared to previous years, the stage is set for a compelling Sweet Sixteen and beyond. Cinderella’s slipper seems to have lost its sparkle this year, with fewer shocking upsets dominating the headlines. After years of bracket-busting madness, a mere two No. 12 seeds advancing past the first round felt almost tame. The lowest-seeded team remaining, No. 10 Arkansas, hardly embodies the traditional underdog spirit, particularly after the program’s significant investment in talent and leadership.
The narrative thus far has been one of chalk prevailing, and with the Sweet Sixteen looming, several key storylines are emerging. One prominent theme is the performance, or lack thereof, from the Southeastern Conference (SEC).
The SEC entered the tournament with a record-breaking 14 teams, a testament to the conference’s perceived strength. However, this impressive representation quickly dwindled as six SEC teams exited before the second round, and another fell on Saturday. In stark contrast, the Big Ten Conference enjoyed a perfect 8-0 record in the opening round, highlighting the SEC’s early struggles on the national stage.
Despite this rocky start, the SEC still holds considerable potential to make a deep tournament run. The sheer volume of SEC teams initially qualifying makes a complete wipeout challenging. Seven SEC teams remain in the Sweet Sixteen, including No. 1 seeds Auburn and Florida, No. 2 seeds Alabama and Tennessee, positioned in separate regions, raising the intriguing possibility of an all-SEC Final Four – a feat never before accomplished. Furthermore, No. 3 Kentucky, No. 6 Ole Miss, and Arkansas provide further reinforcements, bolstering the SEC’s chances.
Considering seeding, the sheer number of teams, and the bracket layout, the SEC arguably possesses a superior opportunity to place more teams in the Final Four than the Big Ten. However, the path to the Final Four is fraught with danger, and numerous obstacles could derail the SEC’s top contenders. While predicting the future is always risky, the author anticipates the SEC will ultimately send two teams to the Final Four. This outcome would allow the Big East Conference to retain its 1985 record of having three teams reach the Final Four. While Dwayne McClain, Patrick Ewing, and Chris Mullin can breathe a sigh of relief, their celebration might be premature.
In some years, the early rounds of the tournament are more memorable than the final stages. The 2023 tournament serves as a prime example. That year was defined by upsets, with No. 15 Princeton reaching the Sweet Sixteen and No. 9 Florida Atlantic shockingly advancing to the Final Four. While the journey was exhilarating, the destination fell flat as UConn dominated San Diego State in the championship game.
This year’s Sweet Sixteen, characterized by a scarcity of true underdogs, presents an opportunity for exceptional play, compelling matchups, and potentially, some game-winning buzzer-beaters. While this tournament may not be remembered for its early-round surprises, a spectacular Final Four could be on the horizon.
Beyond the broader conference narratives, individual players and matchups are beginning to capture attention. Brigham Young University’s Richie Saunders, while not quite a household name like Jimmer Fredette, is proving to be a significant challenge for opposing defenses. Saunders has been instrumental in propelling the Cougars to a Sweet Sixteen showdown with Alabama.
The matchup between No. 6 BYU and No. 2 Alabama promises to be an offensive showcase. Both teams are known for their scoring prowess but struggle defensively. A high-scoring affair seems likely, with the first team to reach 95 points potentially securing the victory. Alabama’s defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in the first round when they allowed 81 points to Robert Morris. This defensive weakness could be exploited by a BYU team that displayed its offensive firepower by hitting 12 three-pointers in a dominant victory over Wisconsin in the second round.
Before the tournament began, the author predicted that No. 1 seeds Florida, Duke, and Houston, along with No. 3 Iowa State, would reach the Final Four. However, Ole Miss’s upset victory over Iowa State necessitates a revision. The author is now projecting No. 1 Auburn to take Iowa State’s place.
While this prediction might not be particularly bold, it would result in four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four, a feat achieved only once before, in 2008, when Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis, and UCLA made history. Similar to the 2008 season, the current crop of No. 1 seeds appears to be exceptionally strong, with no obvious weak link.
The South region’s competitiveness initially gave the author pause regarding Auburn’s chances, but the Tigers overcame a challenging second-round game against No. 9 Creighton. Even more difficult matchups lie ahead, including a Sweet Sixteen encounter with No. 5 Michigan, featuring imposing twin towers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, who will attempt to contain Auburn’s Johni Broome.
While any of the four remaining teams in the South region are capable of reaching the Final Four, Auburn displayed dominant play for much of the season. After experiencing a late-season slump, the Tigers regained some confidence with their victory over Creighton.
As for Houston, Florida, and Duke, the author believes they are currently playing at the highest level. No changes are being made to the initial picks, with the author standing by Houston, who have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen for the sixth consecutive tournament under coach Kelvin Sampson.
Houston’s strength lies in its balance. The team is reliable on both offense and defense. Its veteran-laden lineup features multiple players capable of scoring in double figures. The Cougars are dangerous from beyond the arc, and L.J. Cryer serves as the crucial guard that championship teams often require.
The tournament is far from over, and many surprises may still be in store. But as the Sweet Sixteen approaches, the storylines are becoming clearer, and the potential for an epic Final Four is growing stronger.
