Escalating Conflict: Israeli Airstrikes in Lebanon and Intensified Operations in Gaza Raise Fears of Wider War
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon, teetered on the brink of collapse this weekend as Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Lebanese territory in retaliation for a rocket attack. The exchange of fire, the most intense since the ceasefire began nearly four months ago, left six people dead in Lebanon and stoked fears of a broader regional conflict, particularly given Israel’s simultaneous intensification of its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza.
The escalation began on Saturday when six rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Metula, an Israeli town along the border. While Israel claimed three of the rockets were intercepted, the incident triggered a swift and forceful response. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced that the army was instructed to strike dozens of targets in Lebanon, specifically those associated with Hezbollah.
While the Israeli army stated it could not confirm the identity of the organization responsible for the initial rocket fire, the retaliatory strikes focused on Hezbollah infrastructure, including command centers and rocket launchers. However, the strikes also resulted in civilian casualties. An Israeli strike on the southern Lebanese village of Touline resulted in the deaths of five people, including a child, and wounded ten others, among them two children, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA). Further strikes hit a garage in the coastal city of Tyre, killing one and wounding seven, marking the first attack on the city since the ceasefire took effect on November 27th. Another strike on the village of Hawsh al-Sayed Ali, located along the border with Syria, injured five people, the NNA reported.
Hezbollah, in a statement, denied any involvement in the rocket attack and affirmed its commitment to the ceasefire. However, the Israeli response, seemingly irrespective of Hezbollah’s denial, underscored the precariousness of the situation and the potential for miscalculation leading to a renewed full-scale conflict.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, urged the country’s military to take necessary measures in the south while emphasizing that Lebanon does not desire a return to war. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expressed alarm at the potential escalation of violence, urging all parties to avoid actions that could jeopardize the progress made towards stability.
The flare-up on the Lebanese border occurs against the backdrop of Israel’s renewed and intensified military operations in Gaza. Following a temporary ceasefire, Israel relaunched its war against Hamas on Tuesday, aiming to pressure the militant group to release the remaining hostages captured during the October 7th attack. The Israeli military announced plans for fresh assaults into three neighborhoods west of Gaza City and issued evacuation warnings to Palestinian residents.
The resumption of hostilities in Gaza has been marked by a significant increase in casualties. Since Tuesday, approximately 600 Palestinians have been killed, according to reports. Israeli strikes on Friday night resulted in the deaths of at least nine people, including three children, in a house in Gaza City. The Al-Ahli Hospital, which received the bodies, painted a grim picture of the devastation.
Adding to the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, Israel has cut off the supply of food, fuel, and humanitarian aid to the region’s roughly two million Palestinian residents, further intensifying pressure on Hamas and exacerbating the suffering of the civilian population.
The international community has widely condemned the resumed attacks and the escalating violence. Concerns are mounting over the disproportionate impact on civilians and the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
The conflict began with the initial attack by Hamas-led militants on October 7th, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people in Israel, mostly civilians, and the abduction of 251 hostages. While most of the hostages have been freed through ceasefire agreements and other deals, dozens remain in captivity.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza has resulted in the deaths of more than 49,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, a figure that does not differentiate between combatants and civilians but claims that over half were women and children. Israel claims to have killed around 20,000 militants but has not provided evidence to support this figure.
Inside Israel, public pressure continues to mount on the government. Tens of thousands of Israelis again protested on Saturday, expressing anger at the government’s failure to negotiate a hostage deal and its decision to fire the head of the country’s Shin Bet internal security service, Ronen Bar. Protesters called for new elections, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the current leadership and its handling of the ongoing crisis.
The controversy surrounding the firing of Ronen Bar has reached the Supreme Court, which has ordered a temporary halt to his dismissal pending an appeal. Israel’s attorney general has ruled that the Cabinet lacks the legal basis to dismiss him. Despite the court’s intervention, Netanyahu has stated that Bar "will not remain the head of the Shin Bet" and that "Israel will remain a democratic state." The situation has further fueled political tensions within Israel, with opposition leader Yair Lapid calling for a tax rebellion and general strike if the government defies the court ruling.
The intertwined conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza underscore the fragility of the region and the complex challenges facing policymakers. The potential for escalation remains high, with the risk of a wider regional war looming large. The immediate priorities are to de-escalate the violence, protect civilians, and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Finding a path towards a lasting peace will require a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict and ensures the security and dignity of all people in the region.
The interconnectedness of these conflicts is further demonstrated by the fact that Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into Israel the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza ignited the war there. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict boiled over into all-out war in September as Israel carried out waves of airstrikes and killed most of the militant group’s senior leaders. The fighting killed over 4,000 people in Lebanon and displaced about 60,000 Israelis. The deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from all Lebanese territory has passed but Israel has remained in five locations in Lebanon across from communities in northern Israel. Meanwhile, Israel has carried out dozens of airstrikes on southern and eastern Lebanon, saying it attacked Hezbollah, while continuing drone attacks that have killed several members of the militant group. Lebanon has appealed to the U.N. to pressure Israel to fully withdraw.
