2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament: First Four Predictions and Analysis

The excitement is palpable, the brackets are being meticulously filled (and likely torn up within the first few days), and the annual March Madness frenzy is about to engulf the sporting world once again. The 2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament officially kicks off with the First Four on Wednesday, a quartet of contests that determine the final teams to advance to the coveted Round of 64. These play-in games offer a unique blend of hope, desperation, and the raw energy of teams vying for a chance to prove themselves on the national stage.

Let’s delve into each of the First Four matchups, dissecting the odds, analyzing team strengths, and attempting to predict which squads will emerge victorious and earn their spot in the main draw. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Princeton Tigers

• Iowa State: Favorite
• Princeton: +4.5 Underdog, +165 Moneyline

The Iowa State Cyclones enter the tournament as the favorite in this matchup, a somewhat surprising designation given their roller-coaster season. Pre-season expectations were high for the Cyclones, with many predicting them to be a dominant force in the Big 12. However, they ultimately finished a disappointing seventh in the conference and suffered an early exit in the conference tournament quarterfinals. This underachievement raises questions about their consistency and ability to perform under pressure.

Despite the disappointing season, Iowa State possesses the talent and potential to be a dangerous team. They likely have strong individual players who, on paper, should be able to compete with most teams in the country. The question remains: Can they finally click and play to their full potential when it matters most?

Princeton, on the other hand, represents a potentially dangerous underdog. The Tigers finished second in the Ivy League and boast a well-rounded roster. They feature three players who earned All-Ivy honors, indicating a balanced offensive attack and a solid defensive presence. Ivy League teams are often underestimated in the NCAA Tournament, but they consistently demonstrate their basketball acumen and disciplined play.

Princeton’s balanced roster and strong coaching could prove to be a difficult matchup for a Cyclones team that has struggled with consistency. The Tigers’ ability to control the tempo and execute their offensive sets could frustrate Iowa State, especially if the Cyclones revert to their inconsistent tendencies. The +165 moneyline on Princeton presents an intriguing opportunity for those who believe in the Tigers’ potential to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Princeton upsets Iowa State. The Cyclones’ struggles are too significant to ignore, and Princeton’s balanced roster and Ivy League pedigree make them a formidable opponent.

UC San Diego Tritons vs. Southern Jaguars

• UC San Diego: Favorite
• Southern: +2.5 Underdog, +125 Moneyline
• Over/Under: 111.5 Points

This matchup pits two conference champions against each other, each with a distinct style of play. UC San Diego, fresh off their Big West championship, is favored over Southern, who dominated the SWAC title game with a convincing 20-point victory over Alcorn.

UC San Diego is enjoying their first winning season in four years. A championship win indicates that they have confidence on their side and are likely playing their best basketball of the season. This momentum can be a significant advantage in a tournament setting.

Southern, despite being the underdog, is a team to be respected. Their dominant performance in the SWAC championship demonstrates their offensive firepower and ability to overwhelm opponents. However, the SWAC is generally considered a weaker conference than the Big West, which could be a factor in this matchup.

BetMGM projects this to be the lowest-scoring First Four game, with an over/under of 111.5 points. This suggests a defensive battle where every possession will be crucial. If the game becomes a grind, Southern’s physicality and defensive intensity could give them an edge. However, UC San Diego’s balanced attack and ability to control the tempo could neutralize Southern’s strengths.

Prediction: UC San Diego wins a close, low-scoring game. Their momentum from the Big West championship and slightly more balanced team will see them over the line. The under is the play.

Rutgers Huskies vs. Columbia Lions

• Rutgers: Favorite
• Columbia: +1.5 Underdog, -105 Moneyline

This is arguably the most evenly matched contest of the First Four, with BetMGM setting the line almost straight down the middle. Rutgers, newcomers to the Big 10, are making their first tournament appearance since 2017. Columbia, similar to Princeton, fell to Harvard in the Ivy League tournament but secured an at-large bid for the second consecutive year.

Rutgers’ return to the tournament after a long absence is a testament to their program’s progress. Their experience in the Big 10, a highly competitive conference, should have prepared them for the intensity of March Madness. However, their lack of recent tournament experience could be a disadvantage against a Columbia team that has been here before.

Columbia’s back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances demonstrate their consistency and ability to compete at a high level. Despite falling short in the Ivy League tournament, their at-large bid proves that they are considered one of the top teams in the country. Their familiarity with the tournament atmosphere could give them a crucial advantage.

Prediction: Columbia wins a nail-biter. Their recent tournament experience and overall team composure will edge out Rutgers in a very tight game.

High Point Panthers vs. William & Mary Tribe

• High Point: Favorite
• William & Mary: +6.5 Underdog, +240 Moneyline

High Point, the Big South favorites, are heavily favored over William & Mary, who secured their first NCAA tournament bid in school history by winning the CAA title. The Panthers barely edged out second-seeded Longwood in the conference final after dominating their previous two tournament games. William & Mary, as significant underdogs, have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

High Point’s dominance in the Big South suggests that they are a talented and well-coached team. However, their narrow victory in the conference final raises questions about their ability to close out games under pressure. The fact that they are "settling" for a 16-seed play-in game, as the article puts it, might indicate a lack of focus or motivation.

William & Mary, on the other hand, enters the tournament with unbridled enthusiasm and a sense of destiny. Their historic NCAA tournament bid is a culmination of years of hard work and dedication. They are playing with house money and will undoubtedly leave everything on the court.

Prediction: William & Mary covers the spread, but High Point wins. The Tribe’s enthusiasm and determination will keep them competitive, but High Point’s superior talent will ultimately prevail. The +240 moneyline on William & Mary is tempting, but High Point is just too strong on paper.