HBO Max Subscriber Growth: A Closer Look Behind AT&T’s Numbers
HBO Max, the streaming platform from WarnerMedia under parent company AT&T, is vying for a prominent position in the increasingly competitive streaming landscape. The company has heavily invested in original content, exclusive movie releases, and a user-friendly interface to attract and retain subscribers. However, a closer examination of AT&T’s reported subscriber numbers reveals a more nuanced picture of HBO Max’s actual growth trajectory. While the company touts impressive figures, a deeper dive into its reporting methods exposes some "creative math," making it challenging to accurately assess the platform’s true scaling compared to industry giants like Netflix and Disney+.
In its recent Q1 earnings report, AT&T highlighted "continuing customer growth in wireless, fiber, and HBO Max and strong cash flows." The company proudly announced a net increase of 2.7 million domestic HBO and HBO Max subscribers, bringing the total to 44.2 million domestically and nearly 64 million worldwide. These numbers initially paint a rosy picture of HBO Max’s success.
However, the devil is in the details. Buried in the fine print of the report, AT&T reveals the methodology behind these figures. The reported "subscribers" encompass both "accounts with access to HBO Max (including wholesale subscribers that may not have signed in) and HBO accounts." This means that AT&T is combining HBO subscriptions with HBO Max subscriptions, which inflates the overall number. It’s like saying a restaurant is full because you counted the number of people who walked past it, not the ones who actually sat down and ordered food.
When questioned about this conflation, an AT&T spokesperson clarified that free trials are excluded from the count. However, they explained that "wholesale" accounts, which are those with access to HBO Max through a distributor, including AT&T’s video, broadband, and mobility businesses, are included. "Retail" accounts, on the other hand, are those billed directly by WarnerMedia. This distinction further complicates the picture, as it suggests that a significant portion of the reported subscriber base may not be actively engaging with the HBO Max platform.
This isn’t the first time AT&T has employed such creative accounting methods when reporting its subscriber numbers. Earlier this year, the company announced reaching 37.7 million subscribers, but also disclosed that only 17.17 million were "activated users." When pressed for clarification, a spokesperson explained that the 37.7 million figure represented users with access to HBO Max, while the 17.17 million figure represented those actively using the platform. This revelation raises serious questions about the true engagement levels of HBO Max subscribers. Are a large number of users simply paying for access without actively using the service?
The inconsistent reporting practices make it difficult to compare HBO Max’s performance with that of its competitors, such as Netflix and Disney+. These streaming giants boast subscriber numbers in the hundreds of millions. Netflix has even taken steps to deactivate inactive accounts after a year of inactivity, ensuring that its reported numbers reflect a genuinely engaged user base. Disney+, being a relatively new service, has experienced rapid growth and maintains a high level of user engagement.
Adding to the ambiguity, AT&T CEO John Stankey appeared reluctant to provide further details on HBO Max’s performance during an investors’ Q&A session. When asked about customer engagement and usage patterns, Stankey declined to elaborate, stating that he didn’t want to provide "every 5-week update on those numbers." He did mention that user engagement was "well up over two hours per day per account," which he considered a positive sign. However, his unwillingness to provide more specific data raises concerns about transparency and the company’s confidence in the platform’s actual performance.
Despite the challenges in deciphering the true extent of HBO Max’s success, the platform has undoubtedly made significant strides in the streaming arena. The company’s decision to release its entire 2021 film slate simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max generated considerable buzz and attracted new subscribers. Furthermore, the upcoming launch of a cheaper ad-supported tier in June could potentially boost subscriber numbers by appealing to a wider audience.
However, until AT&T adopts more transparent reporting practices and separates HBO figures from HBO Max figures, its subscriber numbers will remain somewhat questionable. Investors and consumers alike should approach these figures with caution and consider the underlying methodology before drawing conclusions about the platform’s actual scaling.
Ultimately, HBO Max’s long-term success will depend on its ability to attract and retain engaged subscribers through high-quality content, innovative features, and a user-friendly experience. While subscriber numbers are an important metric, they don’t tell the whole story. True success lies in building a loyal customer base that actively uses and values the platform.
It is important for AT&T to prioritize clear and transparent reporting of HBO Max subscriber data to foster trust with investors and consumers. By providing accurate and detailed information about active users, engagement levels, and subscription sources, the company can paint a more reliable picture of HBO Max’s growth trajectory. This would not only enhance the platform’s credibility but also provide valuable insights into its performance, enabling the company to make informed decisions and optimize its strategies for long-term success.
The future of HBO Max remains promising, but the company must address the concerns surrounding its reporting practices to solidify its position as a leading player in the streaming industry. Only through transparency and a commitment to accurate data can HBO Max truly showcase its potential and build a sustainable foundation for continued growth.
