March Madness 2025: First Four Preview – Upsets, Underdogs, and a Million-Dollar Bracket
The stage is set. The buzz is building. March Madness 2025 is officially upon us, tipping off with the First Four games at the hallowed UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. This Tuesday marks the beginning of the frantic, unpredictable, and utterly captivating NCAA Tournament, where dreams are realized, and brackets are busted. Millions are preparing to fill out their brackets, hoping to predict the impossible and maybe even snag a share of that $1 million prize in the USA TODAY Bracket Challenge. Before the madness truly descends, let’s break down the two intriguing matchups slated for Tuesday night, examining the teams, the storylines, and the expert predictions.
Game 1: No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 16 St. Francis – South Region Play-In
The opening act of the 2025 tournament features a battle of the No. 16 seeds, with Alabama State squaring off against St. Francis for the right to advance and face the daunting task of taking on No. 1 seed Auburn in the South region. While neither team is a household name, both arrive in Dayton riding momentum, each carrying a six-game winning streak.
Alabama State, representing the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), finished the regular season with a 19-15 record. While that mark might not scream "tournament contender," the Hornets peaked at precisely the right time, securing the SWAC Tournament title and punching their ticket to the Big Dance. Their calling card is their tenacious defense, particularly their ability to force turnovers. They excel at applying pressure and disrupting opposing offenses, ranking among the top 100 nationally in turnover percentage. Their offensive efficiency, however, is a different story, leaving much to be desired. They will need to find ways to score if they wish to stay competitive.
St. Francis, on the other hand, enters the tournament with a 16-17 overall record. Like Alabama State, they found their groove late in the season, winning their conference tournament to earn an automatic bid. However, their profile is less clear. While specific strengths and weaknesses are not elaborated upon in the available information, the implication is that they may struggle against Alabama State’s defensive pressure.
The key to this game will likely be possession. Alabama State’s pressure defense is designed to disrupt and create turnovers, giving them extra offensive opportunities. If they can dictate the pace and force St. Francis into mistakes, they will be in a good position to win. St. Francis, conversely, will need to protect the ball and find ways to generate offense despite the Hornets’ defensive intensity.
ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Alabama State a 58.4% chance of victory, suggesting a slight edge for the Hornets. The game is projected to be a low-scoring affair, decided by which team can best control possession and capitalize on the other’s errors.
Game 2: No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 11 San Diego State – South Region Play-In
The second game of the First Four features a more high-profile matchup, pitting the controversial North Carolina Tar Heels against the defensively stout San Diego State Aztecs. This game determines which team will earn the No. 11 seed in the South region.
North Carolina’s inclusion in the tournament has been the subject of intense debate since Selection Sunday. Many questioned the selection committee’s decision to include the Tar Heels over other teams considered to be "bubble" teams. Despite the criticism, UNC is in the tournament and looking to prove their worth.
Coming off a tough loss to Duke in the ACC tournament, where they struggled in the late stages of the game, the Tar Heels are looking to rebound and make a statement in the NCAA Tournament. Despite the recent setback, UNC closed the season strong, winning eight of their last ten games by an impressive average of 17 points. Their offense has been clicking, averaging 83 points per game during that stretch.
San Diego State, representing the Mountain West Conference, is known for its stingy defense. They excel at slowing down the game and making it difficult for opponents to score. The Aztecs’ defensive prowess will be a major test for the Tar Heels’ high-powered offense.
The key to this game will be the clash of styles. UNC wants to play an up-tempo game and rely on their offensive firepower, while San Diego State prefers a slower, more deliberate pace. If the Tar Heels can avoid turnovers and consistently knock down shots, they should be able to outscore the Aztecs. However, if San Diego State can control the tempo, force turnovers, and capitalize on UNC’s defensive vulnerabilities, they could pull off the upset.
ESPN’s matchup predictor gives North Carolina a 67% chance of winning. The game is expected to be a "pace war," with each team trying to impose their style on the other. The outcome will likely depend on which team can execute their game plan more effectively. The Heels’ strong offense will give them an edge, though.
Broadcast Information and Streaming Options
Every First Four game at UD Arena will be broadcast nationally on TruTV via doubleheaders on Tuesday and Wednesday. The first game of each night is scheduled to tip off at 6:40 p.m. ET, with the second game following at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET. For those who prefer to stream the games, Sling TV is a readily available option.
The Stakes: More Than Just a Game
Beyond the excitement of March Madness, the First Four games represent more than just basketball. They are opportunities for smaller programs to shine on the national stage, to test themselves against higher-profile opponents, and to create lasting memories for their players, coaches, and fans. For North Carolina, it is an opportunity to silence the critics and validate their tournament selection. For Alabama State and St. Francis, it is a chance to reach the promised land.
Don’t Forget the Bracket!
As the First Four tips off, millions will be glued to their televisions and computers, eagerly following the action and hoping their bracket predictions hold true. The USA TODAY Bracket Challenge offers a chance to win a share of $1 million. But the challenge of predicting the unpredictable is part of the fun. No matter who you are rooting for, the 2025 NCAA Tournament promises to be another thrilling chapter in the history of March Madness. Let the games begin!
