Snoozing on Success: Has North Carolina Missed its March Madness Sunrise?
William Arthur Ward famously said that opportunities are like sunrises: miss them and they’re gone. For the North Carolina Tar Heels this basketball season, Ward’s words resonate with painful accuracy. They repeatedly hit the snooze button when dawn broke, squandering chances to seize crucial victories and bolster their NCAA Tournament hopes. Despite repeated opportunities for a fresh start, they now find themselves precariously perched on the bubble, their fate hanging in the balance.
Their ACC Tournament semifinal victory over Wake Forest offered a glimmer of hope, setting up a highly anticipated showdown with archrival Duke. A win against the Blue Devils would have been a golden ticket, securing an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Head Coach Hubert Davis expressed his team’s excitement, conveying a sense of readiness to face their rivals for the third time this season.
However, the game unfolded as a dispiriting replay of past failures. Duke came out with a palpable fire, a fierce intensity that North Carolina simply couldn’t match. By the time the Tar Heels finally woke up, it was far too late. Duke prevailed 74-71, advancing to the ACC Championship game and leaving North Carolina with a clouded outlook on their March Madness aspirations.
Prior to the game, all signs pointed towards a potential signature victory for North Carolina. They had successfully navigated their first two tournament games in Charlotte, defeating Notre Dame and Wake Forest. Moreover, Duke was noticeably weakened, missing key players in star freshman Cooper Flagg and defensive specialist Maliq Brown due to injuries sustained in their previous game against Georgia Tech. A hobbled Duke team seemed like an opportune moment for North Carolina to capitalize.
Yet, from the opening tip-off, it was Duke, not the national championship-contending Blue Devils, who displayed a desperate hunger to secure an NCAA Tournament berth. They played with an urgency and determination that suggested their season was on the line. In stark contrast, North Carolina appeared sluggish, almost as if the game lacked significant importance.
The disparity in energy was glaringly evident at the end of the first half. Duke players were relentlessly chasing loose balls, sprinting down the court, and playing tenacious defense. Their efforts culminated in a dominant 15-0 run in the final five minutes, resulting in a commanding 19-point lead heading into halftime. Even the injured Flagg, confined to the bench in workout gear, exuded more energy and enthusiasm than anyone wearing Carolina blue.
To their credit, North Carolina finally found some spark in the second half, mounting a late surge that brought them within a single point in the closing seconds. They even had an opportunity to tie the game at the free throw line with just four seconds remaining. But a costly lane violation by Jae’Lyn Withers negated the attempt, effectively sealing their fate and extinguishing any hope of a comeback. It was yet another instance of waiting until it was too late to seize control of the game.
The loss now necessitates a critical reevaluation of North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament candidacy. Recent bracketology projections had them among the last four teams in the field, a position they attained after spending several weeks outside the bracket. This rise was largely due to their avoidance of disastrous losses, while other bubble teams faltered, creating an opening for North Carolina to climb.
However, their progress has stalled due to their inability to consistently defeat quality opponents. While they boast a respectable No. 35 NET ranking and a 22-13 record, they possess only one Quad 1 victory – a win over UCLA in December. Their overall Quad 1 record is a dismal 1-12, compounded by a Quad 3 loss to Stanford earlier in the season.
This abysmal Quad 1 record has become the focal point of the debate surrounding North Carolina’s tournament eligibility. While some argue that their 22 wins and challenging non-conference schedule should be enough, the fact remains that only one of those victories came against a likely tournament team.
Despite the scarcity of Quad 1 wins, history shows that teams with similar resumes have received at-large bids in the past. Nevada in 2019, Syracuse in 2021, and North Carolina State in 2023 all earned tournament berths with only one Quad 1 victory.
Furthermore, both Syracuse and North Carolina State had worse NET rankings on Selection Sunday, potentially bolstering North Carolina’s case. However, a key distinction separates those teams from this year’s Tar Heels: none of them had double-digit Quad 1 losses. Syracuse had the most with seven, still significantly fewer than North Carolina’s alarming 12.
A victory over Duke would have undoubtedly solidified North Carolina’s tournament position. While two Quad 1 wins wouldn’t be an overwhelming number, it would have been enough to secure their place in the field.
Now, the fate of the Tar Heels rests in the hands of the selection committee. The committee faces the difficult task of weighing the historical prestige of the program against the stark reality of their resume. If it were another team, not a blue-blood program like North Carolina, they would likely be dismissed outright. But the Tar Heels’ name and reputation undoubtedly afford them a degree of consideration.
The committee must prioritize selecting the teams best equipped to succeed in the tournament, not merely those with the potential to do so. Throughout the season, North Carolina has hinted at their ability to compete with top contenders. Six of their 12 Quad 1 losses were by single digits, and four were by three points or less. They showed glimpses of promise, but consistently fell short of delivering a decisive victory. Close calls and near misses shouldn’t warrant another opportunity when they have repeatedly demonstrated an inability to close out games.
Ultimately, the Tar Heels consistently missed the sunrise, failing to capitalize on opportunities to secure their tournament future. Unless they receive an improbable stroke of luck, they are likely to witness the sun set on another disappointing season, leaving them on the outside looking in as March Madness unfolds. Their reliance on potential rather than tangible success may ultimately be their undoing.
