Are the Skies Still Safe? Examining Recent Airline Accidents and the State of Aviation Safety
Recent high-profile commercial plane crashes involving U.S. airlines have understandably sparked concern among travelers, leading many to question the safety of air travel. While statistics generally paint a picture of air travel as remarkably safe, the raw numbers can be misleading without proper context. A glance at National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) data might reveal a significant increase in fatalities this year, with 67 deaths reported in commercial plane crashes. This figure represents a stark contrast to the zero deaths recorded last year and deviates substantially from the single-digit range that has characterized commercial aviation deaths over the past decade.
However, aviation experts emphasize the importance of considering these figures within a broader perspective. Kristy Kiernan, Associate Director at the Boeing Center for Aviation and Aerospace Safety at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, points out that accidents involving U.S. air carriers have been exceptionally rare events in recent decades. Drawing from her experience in the Coast Guard, she illustrates how a single incident can create the illusion of a dramatic increase when starting from a base of zero.
It’s crucial to recognize that not all accidents reported by the NTSB involve fatalities. The six air carrier accidents logged so far this year do not all include deaths, and these numbers exclude incidents involving small private aircraft, which typically constitute the majority of overall aviation incidents annually.
Furthermore, attributing airplane accidents to a single cause is rarely possible. Each incident is unique, and comparing two accidents directly can be misleading. Analyzing the total number of accidents each year may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying risks.
Robert W. Mann Jr., a former airline executive officer and current president of R. W. Mann and Co., an independent airline consultancy, acknowledges that headline-grabbing incidents can understandably trigger concern and even alarm among the public. However, he stresses that accident rates vary significantly across different categories of flying. Aggregate data often includes private, charter, and general aviation flights alongside commercial flights, which the vast majority of people use.
To gain a realistic understanding of the risks associated with flying, it is essential to focus on the specific type of operation of interest. For most travelers, this means examining the safety record of scheduled air carriers, which is considered remarkably safe. There are vast differences between the regulations, training requirements, and maintenance standards for scheduled airlines and those for private aircraft owners who fly themselves.
The media often highlights incidents that may not accurately reflect the overall safety of commercial air travel. The midair collision over the Potomac River in January was the first fatal plane crash of a U.S. airliner since 2009, however, there have been other commercial aviation-related fatalities in the intervening years. A 2013 Asiana Airlines flight from Seoul landed short of the runway in San Francisco, resulting in three fatalities. In 2018, a Southwest Airlines flight experienced an engine malfunction that damaged the fuselage, leading to an explosive decompression of the cabin and the death of one passenger.
Other fatal accidents have occurred over the years involving smaller aircraft operating under less stringent regulations than those governing scheduled commercial flights. It remains too early in 2025 to draw definitive conclusions about the state of aviation safety. Whether the recent incidents are anomalies or indicative of a broader issue is still uncertain.
Aviation’s strong safety record is not the result of any single factor. Kiernan emphasizes that the industry has been steadily evolving toward a "just culture" over the past 35 years. This culture emphasizes accountability without resorting to blame and shame. It promotes transparency, trust, and continuous learning. This environment encourages individuals to report mistakes without fear of retribution. Mistakes are viewed as opportunities for systemic correction, and this non-punitive approach is critical to maintaining a strong safety culture.
The industry’s proactive approach to reporting and learning from mishaps is a key factor in ensuring the ongoing safety of air travel. The processes in place are rigorous in terms of identifying hazards, and technology is used to mitigate risks. The dedication to safety is an ongoing project, but it leads to a constant increase in the level of safety.
Mann concurs that the industry’s self-reflection is crucial to its safety record. The goal is to identify the contributing factors in each incident and eliminate them. Maintaining safety requires the involvement of every individual within the aviation system. The safety culture is instilled and maintained at all levels of operation.
Both Mann and Kiernan agree that flying remains extremely safe, but they emphasize that the pursuit of aviation safety is an ongoing process. Continuous improvement is an essential aspect of the aviation industry. They would both feel very safe putting their kids on airplanes on a daily basis.
For nervous passengers, Kiernan recommends empowering themselves with knowledge. Being aware of the location of emergency exits and understanding the procedures outlined on the seatback safety card can help mitigate anxiety. This allows individuals to have a risk perception that is closer to the objectively low risk they actually face when they board an airplane.
