Fantasy Baseball Draft Traps: Players to Avoid in 2025

The thrill of draft day is unmatched. The anticipation, the strategy, the feeling of building a championship-caliber team. But that feeling can quickly turn sour when your carefully selected players underperform. There’s nothing quite as deflating as using a valuable draft pick on a player you believe in, only to watch them flounder and potentially sink your entire fantasy season. Avoiding these potential busts is crucial for success, but it’s a challenge. That late-round flier you’re convinced is a top-20 talent could just as easily be the anchor dragging you to the bottom of your league.

This guide aims to help you navigate those treacherous waters. We’ve identified one player at each position that should raise red flags during your drafts. These aren’t necessarily "bad" players, but rather individuals whose current Average Draft Position (ADP) significantly outweighs their potential production and inherent risk.

The Danger Zone: Positions to Proceed With Caution

Catcher: Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels

O’Hoppe’s situation in Anaheim is looking precarious. The Angels’ acquisition of veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud signals a clear desire for more stability behind the plate. This move casts a significant shadow over O’Hoppe’s playing time prospects. While O’Hoppe played a substantial 136 games last year, his performance, particularly in the second half (.578 OPS after the All-Star break) and against left-handed pitching (.592 OPS), left much to be desired.

Contrast this with d’Arnaud’s impressive .922 OPS against lefties, and the writing is on the wall. O’Hoppe could easily find himself relegated to a platoon role, severely limiting his fantasy value. The risk associated with his potentially reduced playing time simply isn’t worth the draft capital he currently commands.

First Base: Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Pasquantino, currently being drafted within the top 120 picks, presents a concerning trend. Key metrics are regressing, making him a potentially hazardous pick. His walk rate and strikeout rate have both declined consistently over the past three seasons. Normally, this wouldn’t be alarming if his power numbers were on the rise, but unfortunately, they’re not.

Pasquantino’s home run-to-fly ball ratio has also decreased each of the last three years, a particularly worrisome sign considering his fly ball rate has actually increased. Predictive statistics like expected slugging, expected batting average, and expected weighted on-base average all paint a picture of a player trending downward. While 2024 marked his first season with over 75 games played, it’s difficult to invest confidence in a player who has yet to establish long-term consistency. Given the depth at first base, Pasquantino’s risk and unproven track record make him an unwise pick at his current ADP.

Second Base: Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox

Rafaela’s defensive prowess will likely guarantee him consistent playing time, but his offensive limitations and the increasing competition for infield spots in Boston should give fantasy managers pause. The arrival of Alex Bregman and the emergence of Kristian Campbell (Minor League Player of the Year in 2024) create a crowded infield picture.

Even if Rafaela’s defense keeps him in the lineup, he’s likely to hit near the bottom of the order, further limiting his potential for runs and RBIs. His alarming 49.5% chase rate (worst among qualified hitters) and subpar 79.7% zone contact rate (eighth-worst) suggest a high probability of demotion to a bench role. Despite not being considered a top-tier fantasy option, Rafaela is still being drafted within the top 200 picks. He should be avoided altogether.

Third Base: Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins

Castro’s defensive versatility will undoubtedly earn him consistent playing time, bolstering his counting stats. However, his underlying offensive numbers are underwhelming. A .138 ISO, a .385 SLG, and an average exit velocity of 87.4 mph are not the hallmarks of a top-150 hitter. His potential contributions are likely overstated, making him a questionable choice at his draft position.

Shortstop: CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

Abrams was a popular breakout candidate last year, and while he did show slight improvements in power, the breakout wasn’t as significant as anticipated. Despite tempered expectations, Abrams’ ADP remains surprisingly high. With a wealth of talent at shortstop, there’s no compelling reason to draft Abrams ahead of proven performers like Willy Adames or Bo Bichette, even if they are in new situations or coming off subpar seasons. Furthermore, drafting him before players with significant untapped potential, like Cincinnati’s Matt McLain, is a risky proposition.

Abrams should be considered a depth option at best, and lingering off-field concerns further diminish his appeal. There’s little evidence to suggest he’ll drastically improve enough to justify his current top-80 pick status.

Outfield: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

A quick glance at Crow-Armstrong’s Baseball Savant page reveals a troubling trend: nearly every offensive metric is below average. He struggles to hit for average, lacks power, doesn’t hit the ball hard, strikes out frequently, and rarely walks. His primary value lies in his defense and speed.

While his stolen base potential might be enticing in category leagues, his overall offensive limitations make him a limited contributor. You can find comparable stolen base value much later in the draft with players like Jake McCarthy or Victor Scott. Crow-Armstrong’s offensive deficiencies outweigh his defensive strengths in a fantasy context.

Outfield: Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners

Arozarena’s production has steadily declined in recent years, and his move to Seattle hasn’t reversed that trend. While his batting average improved slightly to .231, T-Mobile Park is a notoriously difficult hitting environment, ranking dead last in park factor over the past three seasons.

Although Arozarena still possesses power/speed potential, his stolen base numbers plummeted after joining Seattle (four steals on seven attempts). This is a significant drop-off from his previous performance in Tampa Bay. The combination of a challenging home park and diminished stolen base production makes Arozarena a risky investment at his current ADP.

Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves

Is Acuña a bad player? Absolutely not. However, his current injury status and the likelihood of missing a significant portion of the season make him a risky pick as a top-10 outfielder. The Braves have explicitly stated their intention to exercise caution with Acuña’s return, prioritizing his long-term health.

While he will undoubtedly be a valuable asset upon his return, the amount of time he will miss makes it highly unlikely that he will produce top-10 outfielder numbers. Drafting him later, perhaps around the OF 15-20 range, presents a more reasonable risk-reward profile, and he could become a valuable trade chip as his return nears.

Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Greene’s performance is significantly impacted by his home ballpark, Great American Ballpark, which has the highest home run factor in MLB over the past three seasons. Despite this, Greene’s home run per fly ball rate against his fastball was an unusually low 5.3% in 2024. This is unsustainable, and is evident in the significant difference between his expected ERA and his actual ERA.

His performance last year, where he finished as the SP22, is unlikely to be repeated. However, he’s currently being drafted around SP27, which is too high given the circumstances. A more appropriate ADP would be around SP35-40.

Relief Pitcher: Jason Foley, Detroit Tigers

As a closer, Foley lacks the overpowering stuff typically associated with the position. While his fastball velocity is good, he struggles to generate strikeouts and relies heavily on weak contact to get outs. He ranked in the 14th percentile among pitchers in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate last season.

While sinker-ball pitchers often rely on inducing weak contact, their performance tends to be streaky. Foley had an expected batting average against of .255 last season, placing him near the bottom quartile of MLB pitchers, suggesting he benefited from considerable luck. With the addition of Tommy Kahnle and a host of other high-end relief options, Foley’s margin for error is small. His skill set is prone to failure in various scenarios, making him a suboptimal choice as the Tigers’ closer.

By carefully considering these potential pitfalls, you can navigate your fantasy drafts with greater confidence and build a team poised for success. Good luck!