Trump’s Shadow Looms Over Canadian Politics: Could Tariffs and Annexation Rhetoric Save the Liberals?
Ottawa, Canada – As new tariffs targeting Canada took effect, political analysts are suggesting a surprising twist in the Canadian political landscape: if the Liberal Party manages to retain power in the upcoming election, they may owe a debt of gratitude to none other than former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Since Trump’s time in office, the Conservative Party, once the clear frontrunner and leading the governing Liberals by a considerable margin in public opinion polls, has witnessed a gradual erosion of its popularity. This decline has been punctuated by a recent surge in Liberal support, a shift some attribute directly to Trump’s aggressive trade policies and even his musings about annexing Canada.
An Ipsos poll, released just last week, revealed a significant turnaround. For the first time since the Liberals’ victory in the 2021 federal election, they now hold a slight lead over the Conservatives, with 38% popularity compared to the Conservatives’ 36%. This is a stark contrast to just six weeks prior, when the Conservatives enjoyed a commanding 26-point advantage over the Liberals. With a general election expected to be called this spring by the successor to Justin Trudeau, who is stepping down as the head of the Canadian government and Liberal Party on Sunday, the stakes are exceptionally high.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, expressed astonishment at the rapid shift in public sentiment. He stated that in his four-decade career in polling, he has never witnessed a party experience such a dramatic and swift decline. Bricker attributes the Conservatives’ decline to two primary factors: the departure of Justin Trudeau, whose personal popularity had waned since assuming the office of Prime Minister in 2015, and the perceived threat posed by Trump, particularly his tariffs against Canada and the annexation rhetoric.
According to Bricker, Trump’s actions and statements have effectively changed the dynamic of the election.
Throughout February, Nanos Research observed a narrowing gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Only a month earlier, the Conservatives appeared poised to secure a "super-majority" government, potentially commanding as many as 240 seats in an expanded 343-seat House of Commons, a change taking effect after the upcoming election. Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist of the Canadian polling firm, stated, "That’s completely out the window now." He, too, believes that Trudeau’s impending departure and Trump’s aggressive stance toward Canada have contributed to the Liberals’ newfound momentum.
Nanos elaborated that Trump has effectively re-framed the central question facing voters. "The president has effectively changed the ballot question from: Is it time for a change? – which was bad news for the Liberals – to who can best deal with Donald Trump, the new existential threat to the Canadian economy?"
He further suggested that the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, played a role in the Liberals’ resurgence by appearing "a little out of touch." While Canadians were increasingly concerned about Trump’s threats, the Conservatives remained focused on the Liberal government’s carbon tax, vowing to eliminate it. Nanos argued that, in retrospect, the Conservatives’ previous 27-point lead had less to do with their own strengths and more to do with widespread dissatisfaction with Trudeau and a general desire for change.
The Ipsos poll underscored this sentiment, revealing that 86% of 1,000 respondents expressed a desire for an immediate general election to establish a federal government with a strong mandate to address Trump’s tariff threats.
Bricker believes that the Liberals’ lead in the polls, particularly in the populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec, could even widen if Mark Carney, the former governor of the central banks of England and Canada and a frontrunner in the Liberal leadership race, succeeds Trudeau as prime minister.
A recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that 51% of respondents believe that Carney and the Liberals are best equipped to improve relations with the United States, especially regarding tariffs, compared to 35% who favored the Conservatives under Poilievre. Many Canadians perceive Poilievre as holding a "Trump-light agenda," a perception that may be hindering his appeal to a broader electorate.
Angus Reid, founder and chair of the Angus Reid Institute, explained that Trump’s actions have "eroded Conservative support because it completely changed the political dynamic in Canada, completely changed what could be considered the most important ballot question that was all about getting rid of some of the baggage from the Trudeau era. Now it’s one of defending the sovereignty and economy of the country."
Another Angus Reid poll found that with Carney as Liberal leader, his party is virtually tied with the Conservatives in voting intention, at 44% and 45% respectively. In Quebec, a Carney-led Liberal Party enjoys 31% support, compared to the Conservatives’ 22%.
Reid emphasized that the issues of annexation and tariffs resonate more strongly with Quebecers than with any other region in Canada.
Nanos also noted that Carney presents a unique challenge for Poilievre. "Carney’s further challenge for Poilievre is that the former, on paper, looks like a Conservative," he stated. "The guy worked in the banking sector and the private sector, like Goldman Sachs, and chaired, until recently, large enterprises like Bloomberg and Brookfield [Asset Management]. He walks and talks like a Conservative."
Carney, an Oxford-educated economist with no prior experience in elected office, is widely expected to call a snap election if chosen as Trudeau’s successor.
Reid concluded that if the polling numbers continue to favor the Liberals, they could not only win the national vote in such a contest but also potentially secure a majority government. Currently, the Liberals hold 153 seats in the 338-seat House of Commons, a position that allows them to govern only as a minority government. The coming election could be a pivotal moment for Canadian politics, with the shadow of Donald Trump looming large and potentially reshaping the political landscape in unexpected ways. The narrative has shifted from dissatisfaction with the status quo under Trudeau to a perceived need for a strong and unified government to defend Canada’s interests against external threats, a shift that appears to be benefiting the Liberal Party.
