Germany’s Election: AfD’s Surge and Political Polarization
On Sunday, Germans head to the polls in a pivotal election that is expected to see a shift in power, with the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) vying to oust incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, the potential incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has already made it clear that he will not form a coalition with Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
International Attention on Germany’s Election
The election has garnered international attention, with Vice President J.D. Vance and tech magnate Elon Musk expressing support for the AfD. Musk has repeatedly endorsed the AfD, drawing criticism from German politicians, including Chancellor Scholz, who accused him of interfering in the election. Following a stabbing in Munich, Musk once again voiced his support for the AfD on Twitter, stating, "Only AfD can save Germany."
Firewall Policy and AfD’s Exclusion
The major political parties governing Germany have established a "firewall" between themselves and the AfD, refusing to collaborate or support far-right parties. According to Anna Hardage, a fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, this policy ensures that the AfD remains isolated and excluded from influence.
AfD’s Electoral Performance and Public Impact
Despite its exclusion from governing coalitions, the AfD is projected to significantly increase its vote count from 2021, potentially becoming Germany’s second-largest political party. Its success capitalizes on public concerns over migration and economic challenges.
CDU’s Position on Migration and Russia
To counter the AfD’s appeal, the CDU under Merz has shifted to the right on issues such as migration. However, Merz remains committed to transatlanticism and sees Russia as a primary threat to European security. He supports continued security assistance to Ukraine.
Economic Issues and Scholz’s Declining Popularity
Economic issues have played a major role in the election, with Scholz’s government struggling to manage inflation and stagnant growth. This has eroded his popularity and contributed to the CDU’s lead in the polls.
AfD’s Controversial Reputation
The AfD has faced numerous controversies and legal challenges. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has placed the party under surveillance as a suspected extremist group due to the involvement of some members in neo-Nazi activities. This designation has been upheld by the courts.
Limited Influence Despite Electoral Success
While the AfD is likely to increase its presence in the Bundestag, its exclusion from governing coalitions will limit its influence in shaping policy. However, Hardage notes that the party’s success in mobilizing public opinion will continue to shape public debates and influence the priorities of other parties.
European Solidarity and Support for Ukraine
Despite the AfD’s calls for an end to security assistance to Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions on Russia, European leaders, including Merz, remain steadfast in their support for Ukraine. Conversations between European leaders suggest that support will not diminish in the near future.
Conclusion
Germany’s election on Sunday will likely result in a shift towards a conservative government. The Christian Democrats’ lead in the polls reflects concerns over migration, security, and economic issues. However, the exclusion of the AfD from governing coalitions highlights the political polarization and the continued relevance of right-wing populism in German society.
