NOAA’s Spring Forecast: A Mix of Warmth and Dryness
While Punxsutawney Phil may have predicted six more weeks of winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its own predictions for spring, painting a picture of a season characterized by above-normal temperatures in many regions, but below-normal precipitation in the Southwest.
La Niña’s Diminishing Influence
La Niña, the climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that typically brings cooler-than-average temperatures, remains active, but forecasters expect it to transition to a more neutral state by spring, increasing the chances of warmer weather.
Temperature Outlook
NOAA’s forecast predicts above-normal temperatures across much of the South, Southeast, and East Coast. Southern Florida, southern Georgia, and parts of the Southwest have a high chance (50-60%) of experiencing warmer-than-average temperatures. The northernmost part of Alaska will also feel the warmth.
On the other hand, the northernmost parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana may experience colder temperatures (40-50% chance). The West Coast and Midwest are likely to have normal temperatures.
Precipitation Forecast
The Southwest and parts of the Midwest are expected to receive less precipitation than normal this spring, exacerbating ongoing drought conditions. Utah, eastern New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, and southwestern Colorado have a high chance (50-60%) of drier weather. The Gulf Coast also faces a moderate chance (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation.
In contrast, the Northwest, Great Lakes, interior Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley have a high chance (40-50%) of receiving above-normal precipitation. The East Coast and northern United States should expect average precipitation.
Climatic Normals and Data Sources
NOAA’s climatic normals are based on weather conditions analyzed between 1991 and 2020. These normals provide a baseline for comparing current and future weather patterns.
Conclusion
NOAA’s spring forecast indicates a season of contrasting weather patterns. While the South, Southeast, and East Coast prepare for warmer temperatures, the Southwest faces the prospect of continued drought. The Northwest and other regions can anticipate wetter conditions.
It’s important to note that these forecasts are probabilistic, providing a general outlook rather than specific predictions for every location. Nevertheless, they offer valuable insights into the likely weather patterns that can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions.
