Trump’s Approval Ratings in His Second Term: A Tepid Start
Upon entering his second term, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings surpassed those of his first term in 2017. However, they remained comparatively lower than those of other presidents during their initial terms.
Initial polls conducted within the first few weeks of Trump’s second term indicated that more individuals approved of his job performance than disapproved. Nonetheless, an analysis by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight on January 28th revealed that the gap between Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings was the second-lowest among presidents elected post-World War II, excluding his first term.
Moreover, this gap, referred to as net approval rating, has diminished as more polls have been conducted, dropping from approximately 7 percentage points on January 27th to around 1.3 percentage points on February 20th, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages.
These polls, taken during Trump’s initial month in office, coincided with a flurry of executive actions, court challenges, and departmental directives from his administration. The administration’s efforts to reshape federal agencies and reduce government spending have resulted in the layoff of numerous federal employees.
Using FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average methodology retrospectively, Trump’s net approval rating in 2017 was +3.2 points on January 27th. Former President Joe Biden’s early net approval rating was +21.8, while former President Barack Obama’s stood at +46.9 points, as reported by FiveThirtyEight at the time.
Biden maintained a positive approval rating of approximately 18 percentage points during his first month in office. However, by the time he concluded his presidency earlier this year, FiveThirtyEight’s data demonstrated that more respondents disapproved of him by 20 percentage points.
Historically, presidents tend to enjoy higher public favorability at the outset of their terms, with approval ratings often declining over time. Trump may already be experiencing this trend, as multiple polls conducted in mid-February have lowered his net approval rating, as indicated by FiveThirtyEight’s rolling poll average.
Despite Trump’s non-consecutive terms, Costas Panagopoulos, head of political science at Northeastern University, believes it is still pertinent to compare his early approval ratings with those of past newly-inaugurated presidents.
"It seems like Americans are giving Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt as he starts his second term," Panagopoulos said, acknowledging that many do not anticipate significant changes within his first month back in office.
Panagopoulos has observed some "red flags" for Trump in approval polls, with respondents expressing concerns about his approach to campaign priorities like inflation. However, he noted that the president’s standing appears to be more favorable than at the beginning of his first term.
"It is important to recognize that the country remains divided and highly polarized, and that is being reflected in the approval ratings," Panagopoulos stated. "I mean, his election turned on a dime, and his approval ratings can turn on a dime too."
Poll Results:
- Washington Post/Ipsos: 43% approval, 53% disapproval
- YouGov/TheEconomist: 44% approval, 52% disapproval
- Morning Consult: 42% approval, 53% disapproval
- Gallup: 39% approval, 58% disapproval
- Echelon Insights: 43% approval, 53% disapproval
Conclusion:
Trump’s approval ratings in his second term have started higher than those of his first term but remain lower compared to other presidents during their initial terms. They have also experienced a decline in recent polls, suggesting that public sentiment towards his presidency may be shifting. While it is still early in his second term, Trump’s approval ratings will likely continue to be closely monitored and could influence the trajectory of his presidency.
