Trump’s Brinkmanship with Ukraine: A Perilous Gambit
US President Donald Trump’s incessant attempts to curry favor with the new US President have proven futile. Despite a litany of overtures, including praise for the US in his New Year’s address and a podcast endorsement of Trump over Kamala Harris, Trump’s course reversal towards Russia has accelerated alarmingly.
Trump’s initial threat of sanctions against Russia on his second day in office has given way to a seemingly hourly capitulation. He recently declared that Ukraine could not expect the return of its lost territories, which Russia had "fought hard for." On Tuesday, he blamed Ukraine for the war and labeled Zelenskyy a "dictator" who would "have no country left" if he did not capitulate to Russia. Multiple media outlets now report that Trump intends to block a G7 statement describing Russia as an "aggressor."
The flow of weapons to Ukraine continues – "for now," as Vice President J. D. Vance emphasized on Twitter. The disappointment with President Biden’s hesitant support had led many Ukrainians to pin their hopes on Trump. In retrospect, this always seemed risky given Trump’s campaign rhetoric about alleged waste in Ukraine aid. Vance stated in 2022 that he "didn’t care what happened to Ukraine."
However, Trump’s recent actions have transcended mediation. In effect, he is playing into Russia’s hands. "The US has just switched sides in the Ukraine war," writes political scientist Francis Fukuyama. "Instead of retreating into isolationism under Donald Trump, the US is actively joining the authoritarian camp by endorsing right-wing autocrats worldwide."
At first glance, this position seems tenuous. After all, Zelenskyy is not the first world leader to be verbally attacked by Trump. And the meeting between the US delegation and Russian diplomats in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, yielded little concrete results beyond an increase in embassy staffing.
Yet it is not the tone of Trump’s diatribes against the Ukrainian government that exposes the potential magnitude of his statements. It is the timing shortly after the US-Russian meeting – and the subject of Trump’s criticism: the demand for Ukraine to hold elections.
This demand is based on the (false) assumption that Zelenskyy would have no chance of winning. The alleged illegitimacy of the Ukrainian president is a narrative promoted not only by Russian state media but by Putin himself. Ukrainian law prohibits elections during wartime, so Zelenskyy remained president even after his term expired last May. And despite his declining popularity, his opponents also do not want to hold an election that millions of people, including soldiers on the front lines, would be unable to participate in.
Putin, however, repeatedly suggests that Zelenskyy is no longer authorized to make decisions on Ukraine’s behalf. He claims to be able to "if necessary" talk with Zelenskyy but not sign a peace agreement with him. The absurdity of this argument becomes evident in its continuation: he asserts that a peace agreement could be made with the Ukrainian parliament speaker. Yet parliamentary elections were also canceled, making the parliament’s legitimacy no greater than Zelenskyy’s.
That Putin desires elections in Ukraine is unsurprising. A change of power in Kyiv was Russia’s declared war aim from the outset. Moreover, before holding elections, the Ukrainian government would have to lift martial law. Protests would be allowed again, and an emotionally charged election campaign would erode the remnants of national unity invoked by Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian government will have to prepare for this in any case – but there is a difference between doing so after the war and during the war. It would be naive to believe that Putin would not exploit the situation, potentially through smear campaigns or even a new offensive.
Accordingly, Ukrainians must be alarmed by reports, such as one from Fox News, that the US and Russia discussed a three-step plan in Riyadh. It allegedly envisions a temporary ceasefire, followed by elections in Ukraine, and finally a peace agreement signed by a (possibly new) Ukrainian government. Other sources, including a Green MEP, have also warned of this scenario. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the reports as "fake." However, Russia later confirmed that the US and Russia had also discussed elections in Ukraine in Riyadh.
Trump’s focus on elections – he could have chosen other points of attack – fuels the fear that the new US President is implementing a Russian plan. In Russia, Trump’s communication is met with approval: Bloomberg, citing inside sources, reports that the Kremlin is surprised by the US President’s harsh treatment of Ukraine. Putin’s spokesperson, Peskov, expressed "absolute agreement" with the new US government’s approach. And former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wrote, referring to Trump’s verbal attack on Zelenskyy, "If someone had told me three months ago that these were the words of a US President, I would have laughed out loud."
So much for the impact of Trump’s rhetorical escalation. His reasons, however, remain unclear. A straightforward explanation is provided by his security adviser, Mike Waltz: Zelenskyy had not shown Trump enough respect, for example by accusing him of spreading Russian "disinformation." The Ukrainian president is also expected to sign a resource deal offered by Trump. And soon.
The deal – preferential access to Ukrainian resources such as rare earth elements in exchange for security guarantees – was concocted by Zelenskyy. It was part of the support plan the president presented to the Ukrainian parliament last fall. Already at the time, observers suspected it was tailored to Trump.
Yet what Trump tried to force upon Zelenskyy – reportedly in a rather aggressive manner – deviates significantly from this plan. Not only are the US demanding half of the revenue, but they also view it as compensation for aid already provided. Zelenskyy claims that the document the US insists on signing does not mention security guarantees. He cannot be held responsible for selling out his country. Nevertheless, multiple reports suggest that the deal is not yet dead. The US is apparently willing to consider some of Zelenskyy’s counterproposals. In any case, the Ukrainian president continues to promote it, emphasizing that it should also be a security agreement.
But even if the document is finalized, a fundamental pattern in the developments of recent weeks remains far more significant, perhaps even unknown to Trump himself. The US President approached the talks with Russia in a dilettantish manner. Not only did he make significant concessions before they began – such as clearly excluding Ukrainian NATO membership – but he also assembled a delegation with scant regional knowledge. In Riyadh, they faced off against seasoned diplomat Lavrov, with decades of experience, and other high-ranking figures from Putin’s inner circle. In a sense, Trump has sent rabbits into a wolf’s lair.
Trump’s subsequent actions suggest that the talks yielded less than hoped for. If his approach to Russia fails, the US President must resort to pressure. This can be exerted much more easily on Ukraine, which is dependent on arms supplies, than on Russia. For months, it has been a plausible assumption that this is what will happen. After all, Trump had promised to end the war within a single day. As Matthew Miller, US State Department spokesman under Biden, put it, "Negotiating an end to a war is easy when you’re planning capitulation."
The analytical portal Re:Russia attributes Trump’s negotiating tactics to "Twitter dilettantism," which has already led to a "devastating defeat" in dealing with the Russian leadership. The approach resembles both the agreement with the Taliban, which resulted in a hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Trump’s failed attempt to normalize relations with North Korea. In exchange for a vague hope that Kim Jong Un would end his nuclear program, Trump personally traveled to the border between North and South Korea and allowed the dictator a prestigious meeting. Trump achieved nothing but legitimizing Kim – just as he has now ended Putin’s diplomatic isolation.
The fear is that something similar could happen again. Trump’s attempt to force through an unjust but quick peace could further delay actual peace – whether just or not. Because concessions made from a weak position have never motivated Putin to compromise in the past. In the worst case, Putin will demand even more than before. According to his spokesman, Peskov, he stated last week that the US should negotiate not only the future of Ukraine but also the entire "security on the European continent."
"The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine should have ended long ago," says US President Donald Trump. And this week, he blamed Ukraine for it. "You should never have started it in the first place. You could have made a deal," Trump said at a press conference in Mar-a-Lago. In a post on his Truth Social platform, he called Zelenskyy a "dictator with no elections."
Shortly before, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and others in Saudi Arabia. It is an unprecedented reversal in US-Russian relations. We discuss Trump’s possible strategy, the President’s business interests, and the reception of the new foreign policy direction in the US in the US podcast.
Also: Europe is trying to deal with the new realities in the transatlantic relationship. And the European role in the negotiations to find a ceasefire.
In the get-out: the novels Dancer by Colum McCann and Pnin by Vladimir Nabokov, and the series The Americans.
The podcast is usually released every Thursday.
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For Ukraine, Trump’s resource demands, his concessions to Russia, and his harsh tone towards Zelenskyy are already problems in themselves. But the real difficulties would begin if Trump were to go even further – such as cutting off arms supplies, which so far account for about half of the total military support.
Ukrainian and US officials say that supplies are continuing, but Biden has nearly exhausted the budget for
