Germany’s Electoral Landscape on the Eve of Sunday’s Vote
Despite facing an uphill battle, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains optimistic, expressing confidence that many voters will make up their minds in the polling booths. However, the history of his legendary 2021 comeback victory seems like a distant memory.
In the current race, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is lagging significantly behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Friedrich Merz. Merz has projected the aura of a confident victor, presenting himself as "Chancellor" at the Munich Security Conference and exhibiting composure amidst Scholz’s attacks in televised debates.
Coalition Scenarios
The likelihood of a stable government formation depends on the number of parties entering the Bundestag. Four factions are assured of representation: CDU/CSU (27-31%), AfD (20-21%), SPD (15-17%), and the Green Party (12-14%). The Left Party, FDP, and BSW are hovering around the 5% threshold.
If only one or none of these three parties clears the hurdle, a two-party coalition is likely. However, if two or more parties meet the threshold, coalition negotiations could be protracted.
All parties have ruled out a coalition with the right-wing AfD, including the CDU/CSU.
Union and SPD: The Most Probable Option
Polls indicate that the CDU/CSU and SPD could form a majority in various combinations. However, the CSU has expressed opposition to governing with the Greens. Therefore, a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition appears to be the most probable outcome.
Such a coalition would be far from straightforward. The SPD is facing its worst electoral performance in history (previously 20.5% in 2017). Scholz’s leadership could be at stake if the party suffers such a resounding defeat.
Moreover, the party leadership could be severely weakened. Would a weakened party leader Lars Klingbeil lead the SPD into coalition negotiations or would the mantle fall upon Boris Pistorius, Germany’s most popular politician?
CDU/CSU’s Options
If the Union finds the SPD’s demands unacceptable, it could consider a "Black-Green" coalition with the Greens. Even with CSU leader Markus Söder’s staunch opposition, Merz is likely to engage with the Greens if a two-party alliance is mathematically possible.
Other Scenarios
A three-party coalition at the federal level, as exemplified by the current Ampel coalition, is widely seen as a last resort. The FDP has ruled out a coalition with the Greens, leaving two alternatives:
- A "Germany Coalition" comprising the CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP, provided the FDP enters the Bundestag.
- A "Black-Red-Green" or "Kenya Coalition," named after the colors of the respective party flags.
However, with more parties involved, negotiations become increasingly complex.
The FDP’s Uncertain Fate
The FDP’s entry into the Bundestag is uncertain. Like in 2013, the party could fail to clear the 5% threshold, becoming only the second time since 1949 that the Liberals have been excluded from parliament.
The Left’s Comeback
The Left Party has experienced a resurgence in polls, benefiting from the momentum created by the newly founded BSW. However, a BSW or Left Party participation in an SPD- or Green Party-led government is highly unlikely, according to polls and Chancellor Scholz.
AfD’s Success
The AfD is poised to become the evening’s winner, potentially doubling its 2021 result of 10.3%. The party has already made gains by securing the Union’s support in passing a migration policy resolution in the Bundestag.
The AfD has achieved a degree of respectability and aims to become the strongest party in the next election. Center-aligned parties recognize the importance of preventing this outcome.
Pressure to Build a Functional Government
The time pressure to form a government is unprecedented. Germany has been governed by a weak minority government for almost four months. Scholz will remain as Chancellor until a new cabinet is sworn in, but will effectively be a figurehead with limited authority. This comes at a time of global turmoil.
Merz has expressed impatience, aiming to establish a government by Easter. He emphasizes the urgency of avoiding prolonged negotiations and divisions that characterized the current Ampel coalition.
The electoral landscape remains fluid, with the outcome likely to be decided by a significant number of undecided voters making their choices in the polling booths on Sunday. The formation of a stable government will be crucial to addressing pressing national and international challenges.
