CSU Maintains Strong Position in Pre-Election Survey
Bavaria, Germany: February 20, 2023
Ahead of Sunday’s federal election, the Christian Social Union (CSU) continues to hold steady above the 40% mark in Bavaria, according to a new poll. The survey conducted by GMS on behalf of Sat.1 Bayern shows the CSU at 42%, down two percentage points from the start of the year but significantly higher than its 31.7% result in the 2021 federal election.
The poll also indicates stability among other parties. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the second-strongest party with 19%. The Greens have lost one percentage point compared to the survey in early February, now standing at 11%. The Social Democrats (SPD) have gained one point to 10%, while the Free Voters remain at 5%. The FDP and the Left are both at 4% and 3%, respectively, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has dropped one point to 2%.
However, a significant 29% of respondents stated that they were still undecided about their vote.
Merz Leads in Chancellor Question
In the chancellor poll, Friedrich Merz (CDU) continues to hold a narrow lead with 40%, down slightly from 42% in late 2022. Alice Weidel (AfD) is in second place with 15%, followed by Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Robert Habeck (Greens) with 13% each.
Black-Red Coalition Preferred Over Black-Green
The poll also reveals a preference for a black-red coalition (CDU/CSU-SPD) over a black-green coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens). A black-red partnership is favored by 57% of respondents, compared to only 24% for black-green.
Methodological Considerations
The survey was conducted by GMS from February 16 to 19, 2023, and involved 1,026 eligible voters in Bavaria.
It is important to note that election polls are inherently subject to uncertainty. Factors such as declining party loyalty and last-minute voting decisions make it challenging for polling organizations to accurately weight the collected data. Therefore, polls should be viewed as snapshots of public opinion at the time of the survey, not as predictions of the election outcome.
