Ukraine’s Fate and Europe’s Security: Bargaining Chips in Washington-Moscow Deal
The future of Ukraine and the security of the European continent were on the agenda of discussions, but only as variables in the broader deal that Washington appears to be seeking with Moscow. After his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed his satisfaction: "I can say that the discussions were not a failure."
For Ukrainians and Europeans, living under the looming threat of Russian aggression, Moscow’s satisfaction is far from reassuring. "Any solution (to the Ukrainian conflict) without reliable and strong security guarantees would be nothing but a deception on the part of Russia and a prelude to a new war," President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned on Monday evening. There is no indication that such guarantees were discussed in Riyadh.
Visiting Ankara, the Ukrainian leader lamented that talks were taking place "about Ukraine without Ukraine." But for Donald Trump, the primary goal seems to be to re-establish ties with Vladimir Putin, as if to rid himself of an adversary. The Republican is planning to meet with his Russian counterpart by the end of February. For the US president, the Chinese issue is a priority, and the European theater is an unwelcome distraction.
The Ukrainian Perspective: No Security Guarantees, No Resolution
Ukrainian officials have been consistent in their demand for solid security guarantees as a precondition for any resolution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. They have expressed skepticism about the commitment of the Trump administration to their security and fear that the US may be willing to sacrifice their interests in order to appease Russia.
Zelensky’s comments reflect the widespread concern among Ukrainians that the US and Russia may be negotiating a deal that would leave Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian aggression. They are particularly worried about the prospect of the Trump administration lifting sanctions on Russia without securing concrete concessions on Ukraine.
European Concerns: Regional Stability and NATO’s Credibility
For European allies, the outcome of the US-Russia talks has significant implications for regional stability and the credibility of NATO. A deal that leaves Ukraine exposed to Russian influence would undermine European security and damage NATO’s credibility as a guarantor of peace and stability in Europe.
European leaders have consistently expressed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They have warned that any attempt to appease Russia at Ukraine’s expense would be a dangerous mistake.
Trump’s Priorities: Putin Over Ukraine
President Trump’s focus on rebuilding relations with Putin is based on his belief that Russia can be a valuable partner in addressing other global challenges, particularly the rise of China. He has repeatedly downplayed the importance of the Ukrainian conflict and has expressed a willingness to lift sanctions on Russia.
Trump’s approach has been criticized by many within the US foreign policy establishment, who argue that it is short-sighted and naïve. They believe that appeasing Putin will only embolden him and make him more likely to pursue aggressive policies in the future.
The Future of Ukraine and Europe
The outcome of the US-Russia talks will have a profound impact on the future of Ukraine and the security of Europe. If the US commits to providing Ukraine with strong security guarantees, it will send a clear message to Russia that any further aggression will come at a high cost.
But if the Trump administration agrees to a deal that leaves Ukraine vulnerable, it will undermine European security and damage NATO’s credibility. It would also send a dangerous signal to other authoritarian regimes around the world that they can act with impunity.
The fate of Ukraine and the security of Europe hang in the balance. The Trump administration must carefully consider the consequences of any deal it strikes with Russia.
