Economic Implications of an AfD Victory: A Study by the German Economic Institute
A recent study conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW) commissioned by the Bündnis Vielfalt ist Zukunft (Alliance for Diversity and Future) has raised serious concerns about the potentially severe economic consequences of an AfD victory in the upcoming Bundestag election.
The study found that an AfD victory would result in a staggering 690 billion euros in lost gross value added to the German economy. This would lead to the elimination of 2.5 million jobs, leaving hospitals short-staffed and the government facing a financial crisis due to a shortfall of 181 billion euros in tax revenue.
The study’s findings are based on an analysis of the AfD’s economic program, which the IW researchers identified as a significant threat to Germany’s prosperity, growth, and stability. Despite the party’s promises of substantial tax cuts for businesses, the IW study argues that the AfD’s economic ideas are harmful to the economy and would lead to a massive loss of wealth if implemented.
Hildegard Müller, President of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, criticized the AfD’s economic policies, stating that the party’s opposition to innovation in areas such as electric mobility and renewable energy would harm the automotive industry.
The study also drew upon a survey of 2,700 German companies conducted by the IW’s Future Panel, a regular survey of businesses in the manufacturing and service sectors. The survey found that businesses were highly critical of the AfD’s economic policies, including its tax plan, proposed increases in pension payments, skepticism towards climate change, and energy policy.
Ingrid Rieken, Human Resources Director at MAN Energy Solutions, highlighted the negative impact the AfD’s proposed withdrawal from wind energy would have on Germany. Rieken also expressed concerns about the AfD’s immigration policies, arguing that they harm Germany’s economic competitiveness by discouraging skilled immigration.
Reinhard Lüken, Managing Director of the German Shipbuilding and Ocean Industries Association, raised concerns about the AfD’s plans to halt further development of offshore energy facilities. Lüken emphasized the importance of these industries for Germany’s economic growth and job creation.
The study also examines the economic consequences of mass deportations of well-integrated migrants, finding that such a policy would hinder employment growth and reduce the German labor market’s size. The study estimates that the 6.7 million foreign workers in Germany currently contribute 13.2% of the country’s gross value added, a figure that rises to 16.9% when accounting for indirect effects.
Knut Bergmann, co-author of the study, concluded that the AfD not only poses a threat to Germany’s economic competitiveness but also to the political discourse itself. The study’s findings underscore the urgency for voters to carefully consider the economic risks associated with supporting the AfD in the upcoming election.
