The Financial Imperative of College Football’s Expansion Plans
Introduction
As college football’s administrative leaders gather in New Orleans, the focus is clear: revenue generation. This drive is manifested in proposals for expanding the College Football Playoff (CFP) and creating a championship weekend that could become a play-in week.
CFP Expansion and Playoff Structure
The current CFP features 12 teams, and there are discussions to increase that number to as many as 16. However, the financial motivation behind this expansion is more significant than the competitive aspect. By adding more teams to the playoff, the NCAA and conferences can secure higher television rights fees.
Championship Weekend Play-In Format
One proposed change that has garnered attention is a weekend of play-in games before the CFP. Under this format, the top two seeds in each conference would play in the conference championship game. The remaining six teams would face off in a series of three play-in games (No. 3 vs. No. 8, No. 4 vs. No. 7, No. 5 vs. No. 6). The winners of these games would advance to the CFP, while the losers would be eligible for at-large selection.
Financial Implications
The expanded championship weekend and play-in concept would create more high-profile games, increasing television viewership and advertising revenue. For example, in 2024, Georgia and Texas would have played in the SEC championship game, with the loser needing an at-large bid to the CFP. Under the proposed format, that game would now be a play-in game, generating additional revenue.
Offsetting Pay-for-Play Costs
The move to expand football and other NCAA sports tournaments is seen as a way to mitigate the financial impact of pay-for-play rules. Schools can spend up to $20 million on player salaries, but they are not required to do so. This rule has the potential to significantly drain athletic department budgets, especially in conferences like the SEC, ACC, and Big 12, where media revenue is high.
Damage to Athletic Departments
The $20 million pay-for-play budget represents a substantial portion of each school’s media rights revenue. For example, in the SEC, each school received $52.5 million from media rights in the 2023-24 academic year. The $20 million pay-for-play fund thus amounts to nearly 40% of each school’s media revenue. This is a staggering number for universities that have traditionally paid nothing to their athletes.
Conference Implications
The Big Ten and ACC have also considered similar championship weekend play-in formats. If momentum turns in that direction, it could mean up to 16 play-in games among power conferences. The 2026 CFP format is likely to expand to 14 teams, with the SEC and Big Ten pushing for 16 teams. This expansion would increase the number of automatic qualifying spots for the two super conferences.
Conclusion
The discussions in New Orleans this week are not merely about the format of the CFP. They are about the financial survival of athletic departments in the face of changing regulations and financial challenges. By expanding games and tournaments, the NCAA and conferences are seeking to generate more revenue and offset the costs associated with pay-for-play. While these changes may have competitive implications, they are ultimately driven by the imperative to maintain the financial health of college athletics.
