SPD Maintains Lead, CDU and AfD Poised for Resurgence in Hamburg Election
With just two weeks remaining until Hamburg’s Bürgerschaft (state parliament) election, the SPD holds a clear lead over the Greens, according to a poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. Despite recent losses, the SPD remains on track to maintain the mayor’s office in the upcoming legislative term. Both the CDU and AfD are poised for significant gains, following historic lows in 2020. The Left Party is expected to maintain its current level of support.
Projected Vote Shares According to the Poll:
- SPD: 32%
- Greens: 19%
- CDU: 18%
- Left Party: 9%
- AfD: 9%
- FDP: 3%
- Volt: 3%
- BSW: 3%
- Other Parties: 4%
This distribution of votes would ensure a continued majority for the current SPD-Green coalition government. Public support for this coalition arrangement is strong, with 56% expressing approval and only 32% disapproving. In contrast, an SPD-CDU coalition garnered only 30% approval, while 55% disapproved.
In the 2020 Bürgerschaft election, the SPD emerged as the strongest party with 39.2% of the vote, followed by the Greens (24.2%). The CDU (11.2%), Left Party (9.1%), AfD (5.3%), and FDP (4.9%) trailed behind.
Key Points to Consider:
- Methodology: The survey was conducted by telephone and online from February 10th to 13th, reaching 1,055 eligible voters in Hamburg.
- Margin of Error: Poll results are subject to inherent uncertainties. Factors such as declining party allegiance and last-minute voting decisions can make it challenging for polling institutes to accurately weight the collected data.
- Projections vs. Predictions: Opinion polls reflect the sentiment of the electorate at the time of the survey and should not be interpreted as predictions of election outcomes.
Implications for the Election:
The poll suggests that the SPD remains well-positioned to retain its leadership role in Hamburg. However, the significant gains projected for the CDU and AfD could potentially reshape the political landscape. The Greens face a challenge in maintaining their current level of support, while the Left Party is poised to hold steady. The FDP and newer parties such as Volt and BSW will need to make significant inroads to secure representation in the Bürgerschaft.
The current SPD-Green coalition government enjoys strong public support, but the poll indicates that there is also an appetite for alternative coalition arrangements. The final outcome of the election will depend on the ability of the parties to mobilize their supporters and sway undecided voters in the remaining days of the campaign.
