The Sixers’ Tanking Conundrum: A Necessary Evil for Future Success?
The Philadelphia 76ers find themselves at a crossroads, a stark contrast to the optimistic outlook that permeated the start of the season. What began with championship aspirations, fueled by the star power of Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, and perceived roster depth, has devolved into a desperate scramble to salvage something from a rapidly deteriorating season. The crushing news of Embiid’s season-ending knee injury has forced a dramatic shift in strategy, prompting a difficult but arguably necessary embrace of the dreaded "tank."
With Embiid sidelined, the 76ers’ playoff hopes have dwindled significantly. They now face a daunting six weeks, not battling for seeding, but rather strategically positioning themselves for the NBA Draft Lottery. The primary objective? Securing a top-six pick. This seemingly counterintuitive goal is dictated by the intricate details of a 2020 trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder. As part of that deal, the Sixers owe the Thunder a 2025 first-round pick. However, this pick is protected: if it falls within the top six, Philadelphia retains it. Currently holding the sixth-worst record in the league, the Sixers are precariously close to relinquishing a potentially valuable asset.
The stakes are undeniably high. Missing out on a top-six pick would not only deprive the Sixers of a promising young talent but also hand a valuable asset to a conference rival. The draft lottery, scheduled for May 12, looms large, carrying significant weight for the team’s future trajectory.
The argument for tanking, while often viewed negatively, becomes compelling in this context. For the 76ers, it’s a calculated risk, a strategic maneuver designed to maximize their chances of retaining their draft pick. To do anything less would, according to some, be franchise malpractice. The suggestion is clear: prioritize development, give playing time to younger players like Quentin Grimes, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona, Lonnie Walker IV, Ricky Council, and Jared Butler, even if it means sacrificing wins in the short term.
The NBA’s system, in its current form, inadvertently incentivizes this behavior. While no team openly admits to tanking, the potential rewards of a high draft pick are often too significant to ignore, especially for teams facing long-term challenges. Regardless of one’s personal views on the ethical implications of tanking, the reality is that for the Sixers, securing a top-six pick, particularly in what is believed to be a deep 2025 draft class, is crucial to their mission of rebuilding and improving their roster.
The future of Embiid remains a significant unknown. While the organization expresses optimism about his ability to return as a productive player, his long-term health and effectiveness are legitimate concerns. Therefore, bolstering the roster with young talent becomes even more critical. Adding another promising player through the draft provides the Sixers with much-needed depth and potential, regardless of Embiid’s status. This responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of Daryl Morey, the team’s president of basketball operations.
The shift in the Sixers’ fortunes has been dramatic. Just a month ago, with a record of 19-27, they were in contention for a play-in spot. However, a dismal stretch of 11 losses in 12 games has plummeted them to 12th place in the Eastern Conference standings, three games behind the Chicago Bulls for the final play-in tournament berth.
While the remaining schedule is considered relatively easy, according to tankathon.com, the absence of Embiid removes any guarantees of victory. The Sixers are now faced with a delicate balancing act: losing enough games to maintain their draft position while simultaneously developing their younger players.
The NBA draft lottery system offers a glimmer of hope, but also a significant element of risk. With the sixth-worst record, the Sixers currently have a 9% chance of winning the coveted No. 1 pick, a 37.22% chance of moving into the top four, and a 45.8% chance of staying within the top six. However, that also means there’s a 54.2% chance they fall out of the top six, and the pick conveys to Oklahoma City. The decision becomes one of risk assessment: do they gamble on those odds and hope to retain the pick, or do they play for wins and risk losing out on a potentially transformative player?
The Toronto Raptors are breathing down their necks, only 1.5 games behind in the standings, meaning the Sixers could potentially drop further and improve their odds of securing a better draft position. The Brooklyn Nets are also just one game ahead, further highlighting the precariousness of their current situation.
NBA executives and scouts have been closely monitoring the 2025 draft class for some time, with many believing it to be particularly strong and deep in potential lottery picks. The class is said to offer a variety of versatile players who can address different team needs.
Duke’s Cooper Flagg is currently projected as the No. 1 overall pick. Following him, prospects such as Rutgers’ Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe, Illinois’ Kasparas Jakucionis, Duke’s Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach, Texas’ Tre Johnson, Georgia’s Asa Newell, UConn’s Liam McNeeley, and BYU’s Egor Demin are all considered potential top-ten picks. These names represent the potential rewards awaiting the Sixers if they successfully navigate the tanking process and retain their coveted draft pick.
In conclusion, the Philadelphia 76ers are facing a difficult but unavoidable decision. The injury to Joel Embiid has fundamentally altered their season, forcing them to prioritize long-term development and strategic draft positioning over immediate wins. While the concept of tanking remains controversial, the unique circumstances surrounding the 2025 draft pick make it a necessary evil for the Sixers. The future success of the franchise may very well hinge on their ability to secure a top-six pick and add another promising young talent to their roster. The next six weeks will be a test of patience, strategy, and ultimately, luck.
