Upcoming German Federal Election: Key Points and Changes
Introduction
On February 23, 2025, Germany will hold its 21st Bundestag election, marking a significant event in the country’s political landscape. This election is particularly notable due to its unique circumstances and the implementation of electoral reforms passed in 2023. This article provides an overview of the key changes and essential information surrounding the upcoming election.
Electoral Eligibility
German citizens who have reached the age of 18, have resided in Germany for at least three months, and have not been deprived of their electoral rights are eligible to vote. German citizens living abroad may also be eligible under certain conditions, such as having lived in Germany for at least three consecutive months after the age of 14.
To cast their vote, eligible voters must be registered in the electoral roll. German citizens living abroad who are not registered in Germany must submit a written application prior to each election.
Active and Passive Electoral Rights
The right to vote is known as active electoral right, while the right to stand for election is referred to as passive electoral right. German citizens who have reached the age of 18 on election day and have not been deprived of their electoral or eligibility rights are eligible to run for office.
Candidacy and Party Nomination
There are several ways to become a candidate for a Bundestag seat. The simplest method is through membership in a political party. Parties nominate candidates for direct mandates in individual constituencies and for their state lists in their respective federal states. Candidates for constituencies are nominated by party member or delegate assemblies. Each party can only nominate one direct candidate per constituency. While the representatives or members must reside in the corresponding constituency, the candidates themselves do not have to. The placement on the state lists is decided by a delegate assembly of the respective state association of a party.
Formation of the Bundestag
The Bundestag operates under a personalized proportional representation system, combining the election of direct candidates for constituencies with a proportional distribution of seats in the Bundestag.
First Vote: Direct Candidates
With the first vote, voters elect direct candidates in their own constituency. The candidate who receives the most votes wins. However, they only directly enter the Bundestag if their party receives enough seats through the second vote. This is a new feature introduced by the electoral reform, which abolished overhang and compensation mandates.
Second Vote: Party Lists
With the second vote, voters primarily choose a party and its state list. The second vote determines the number of seats a party получает in the Bundestag and the majority ratios within it. In the first step, the number of seats a party is entitled to nationwide is determined, and these seats are then distributed accordingly to the state lists. However, direct mandates have priority and are filled first. Open seats are then allocated from the state lists.
Five Percent Threshold and Consequences
The five percent threshold applies to Bundestag elections. This means that parties must reach at least five percent of the second votes nationwide to enter the Bundestag. Smaller parties such as Volt, the Animal Protection Party, or the ödp usually fail to meet this threshold. As a result, votes for such parties are often considered "wasted."
However, representatives of small parties argue that every vote brings attention, even if the party does not ultimately enter the Bundestag. This also applies to the issues represented by the smaller parties. Additionally, every vote contributes to the growth of the respective party: Even if parties do not pass the five percent threshold, they benefit from state party funding. They are entitled to this funding if they receive at least 0.5 percent of the second votes.
Number of Constituencies and Population Distribution
Germany is divided into 299 constituencies. On average, around 240,320 people live in each constituency, according to the Federal Returning Officer. The spatial boundaries are based on those of municipalities, districts, and cities, as defined by the Federal Electoral Act. One direct mandate per constituency is elected with the first vote of the local voters.
Constitutional Court Ruling on Basic Mandate Clause
The aim of the 2023 electoral reform was to reduce the size of the Bundestag, which had been growing steadily in recent years due to overhang and compensation mandates. The reform established a fixed number of 630 seats in the Bundestag.
The Ampel coalition initially sought to abolish the basic mandate clause, which allowed smaller parties to enter the Bundestag even if they failed to reach the five percent threshold by winning at least three direct mandates. However, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled against this proposal.
Accelerated Election Timeline
The original election date was set for September 28. However, following the breakdown of the Ampel coalition and the limited Handlungsfähigkeit of the red-green minority government, Chancellor Olaf Scholz paved the way for new elections. After Scholz’s failed vote of confidence, Federal President Steinmeier can now set a date for a new election. The SPD and CDU have agreed on February 23.
Implications of the New Election Date
For election committees, parties, and politicians, the accelerated timeline means less time for preparation. Most deadlines associated with a Bundestag election are now halved, including the deadlines for submitting state lists and registering participation. The search for polling stations, election workers, and their training will also be constrained, as will the time for parties to prepare their lists and election programs.
Potential Future Election Dates
Article 39 of the Basic Law states that an electoral period begins with the constituent session of the newly elected Bundestag and lasts for four years. A new election can be held no sooner than 46 and no later than 48 months after the start of the electoral period. This may lead to Bundestag elections taking place a few weeks earlier every four years. The 1983 Bundestag election serves as an example: then-Chancellor Helmut Kohl posed a vote of confidence in December 1982, and new elections were held in March 1983. The next Bundestag elections took place on January 25, 1987, and then on December 2, 1990. In 1994, the election was held in mid-October, and in 1998, the Bundestag election was held in September again for the first time. After three legislative periods, it could be possible to return to an autumn election date.
Election Forecasts and Exit Polls
On election day, the first forecasts are reported as early as 6 p.m. However, at this point, the votes have not yet been counted. So where do the data come from?
These early forecasts are based on representative post-election surveys conducted on election day itself. For example, the research institute Infratest dimap interviews voters in 560 polling stations to determine how they voted. The results of these surveys are then incorporated into the institute’s forecast. To reach postal voters, the pollsters also conduct telephone surveys. Nevertheless, the increasing number of postal voters makes reliable 6 p.m. forecasts more difficult.
Projections differ from forecasts in that they incorporate initial counted results in addition to the post-election surveys. These results are transmitted directly to the research institutes by their employees who are present at the vote counts in the polling stations. Throughout the evening, the projections are continuously updated with each additional counted result.
Postal Voting and Potential Challenges
Postal voting is still possible for this early election. Since the election date is not yet officially set, there are no election notices yet. However, in some federal states, such as Rhineland-Palatinate or Baden-Württemberg, it is already possible to apply for postal voting. The documents will not be available until a later date.
All deadlines, including those for postal voting, are halved for the early election. This gives postal carriers less time to deliver the postal voting documents and voters less time to make their decision and return their documents by mail.
The state election director of Thuringia, Holger Poppenhäger, appealed to voters to go directly to the polling station instead. He predicted that there would be increased problems with postal voting.
Formation of the New Government
According to Article 30 of the Basic Law, the newly elected Bundestag must convene no later than 30 days after the Bundestag election. During this constituent session, the Bundestag president, vice presidents, and secretaries are elected. The rules of procedure are also adopted. From this session onwards, the previous members of the Bundestag are no longer in office. This is not the case with the Federal Government, which remains in office until a new Federal Government has been appointed.
After the election, the parties typically begin exploratory talks to sound out possible coalitions. If these talks are successful, coalition negotiations are initiated. The goal is a coalition agreement and ultimately the formation of a government.
The Basic Law does not specify fixed deadlines for the election of the Federal Chancellor. The Chancellor is proposed by the Federal President and must then be elected by the Bundestag.
