Baseball’s Back: A Fantasy Forecast for 2025

The crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd, the scent of hot dogs – baseball is back, and with it comes the familiar blend of hope and apprehension. But 2025 feels a bit different, tinged with an extra layer of uncertainty as we navigate new norms and evolving strategies. So, let’s dive in and explore the landscape, focusing specifically on the fantasy baseball implications of these changes.

We’re entering a golden age of talent. The game is overflowing with exceptional players capable of breathtaking feats. Just last season, we witnessed baseball’s first ever 50-homer, 50-steal campaign. A player reached a slugging percentage above .700 for the first time in two decades. And two pitchers managed to simultaneously lead their leagues in wins, ERA, and strikeouts – a truly remarkable achievement. It’s a fantastic time to be a baseball fan, and an even more exciting time to be a fantasy baseball manager.

For those lucky enough to choose their draft position, snagging a top-three pick this year is like striking gold. With the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Bobby Witt Jr. on the board, a bad choice is practically impossible.

Ohtani’s 2024 season was nothing short of legendary. He slashed .310/.402/.654 with 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases, 134 runs scored, and 130 RBIs, carrying the Dodgers – and countless fantasy teams – to glory. He delivered one of the most dominant offensive seasons in baseball history.

Judge was equally impressive, blasting 58 home runs (just shy of his own AL record) and posting a jaw-dropping .322/.458/.701 slash line, along with 122 runs and 144 RBIs. His presence in any lineup is a guaranteed boost.

However, neither Ohtani nor Judge claims the top spot in our fantasy rankings. That honor belongs to the supremely talented Bobby Witt Jr. The 24-year-old shortstop led the majors with a .322 batting average last year, adding a coveted 30-30 season to his resume. While Ohtani and Judge boast stratospheric stat lines, Witt’s outstanding health record and shortstop eligibility give him extra value in the fantasy realm.

Another exciting aspect of the upcoming season is Ohtani’s return to the mound. Over the previous three seasons, he demonstrated his pitching prowess with a stellar 2.84 ERA. However, fantasy managers must be patient, as he might not be fully recovered from his elbow injury until May.

The Dodgers’ management of Ohtani’s dual roles could create headaches for fantasy managers. Will he get extra off days as a hitter to prepare for his pitching starts? Will his shoulder injury impact his stolen base attempts? The Dodgers’ handling of Ohtani will be a key storyline to follow.

Furthermore, Ohtani’s eventual return to pitching raises questions about the Dodgers’ already formidable pitching staff. With the addition of Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers could opt for a six-man rotation, common in Japan. This change could dilute the fantasy value of each individual pitcher.

The trend towards reducing pitcher workloads extends beyond the Dodgers. The Tampa Bay Rays, among other teams, might consider a six-man rotation. In 2024, only four pitchers reached the 200-inning mark, a far cry from the days when it was a benchmark for a solid starter. This shift suggests that quality innings from starting pitchers are more valuable than quantity in fantasy leagues.

The positive side of this evolution is the overall depth of the pitching pool. Pitching triple crown winners Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes predictably top the rankings. However, there’s a wealth of options beyond the top 25, from consistent veterans to rebound candidates to potential breakouts.

Five former Cy Young winners – Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcantara, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Shane Bieber – are looking to bounce back from injury issues, much like Chris Sale did on his way to the NL Cy Young award last season.

Additionally, pitchers like Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff, Shane McClanahan, and Lucas Giolito, all with top-six Cy Young finishes, are returning from injury-plagued seasons. Despite reduced workloads, these pitchers can significantly contribute to fantasy teams. However, be mindful of injury history, as past injuries are the most reliable predictor of future ones.

One of the biggest unknowns involves the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A’s moving to new home fields, both of which were among the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors over the past two seasons.

American League batters should rejoice! The Rays’ move from Tropicana Field to Steinbrenner Field in Tampa will give hitters a short porch in right field. The warmer weather will also help the ball fly farther. Left-handed hitters Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe, along with rookie Junior Caminero, could especially benefit.

The Athletics are relocating to Sacramento, where hot temperatures and less foul territory should boost the majors’ fifth-worst offense. This move could make them more viable fantasy options.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has undergone a renovation that moved the left field wall in significantly. The park has played 12% below the major league average in scoring the past three years. The changes should make it a more neutral offensive environment.

A word of caution: Don’t overload on Rays, A’s, or Orioles players based solely on these changes. Remember the Toronto Blue Jays’ renovations a few years ago that were supposed to turn Rogers Centre into a hitter’s paradise? Those changes didn’t materialize.

In the end, we can only make educated guesses. That’s why they play the games. This season promises to be full of surprises, so stay informed, be adaptable, and enjoy the ride.